596
FXUS64 KLIX 302049
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
249 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
STILL WATCHING A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME AROUND LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES EAST,
IT WILL START TO LOSE STRENGTH AND THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE
FORECAST QPF GRADIENT WHERE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN TIER MAY SEE UP
TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHERE PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY ONLY
GET AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS IS BECAUSE MOST OF THE FORCING
MOVES NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
MIDWEST. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, SPC CONTINUES WITH THE MARGINAL
TO SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER, LACKLUSTER CAPE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST
POTENTIAL IS WHERE SOME FORCING IS LOCATED ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY, BUT THIS LITERALLY IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO WILKINSON
COUNTY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST FROM THERE. CANNOT RULE OUT A
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR TWO OR EVEN A TORNADO IF AN EARLY UPDRAFT
IS ABLE TO GROW JUST WIDE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE PROPER
VERTICAL STRETCHING. HOWEVER, AGAIN, THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS A VERY RICH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND
MID 60 DEWPOINTS ADVECT OVER LOW 50 SSTS. ADDED ANOTHER MARINE
DENSE FOG, BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS
LANDBASED ZONES KEPT THESE AREAS CLEAR FOR NOW IN TERMS OF AN
ADVISORY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG IF CONFIDENCE
IN LANDBASED DENSE FOG INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE POOLING.
ON FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING WITH IT A MUCH
DRIER REGIME. TEMPERATURES DO COOL VERY SLIGHTLY...BY A FEW
DEGREES, BUT LARGELY WITHOUT MUCH OF AN ARCTIC INTRUSION AND A
MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MORE ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AGAIN EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY
MILD TEMPERATURES LINGERING. NO REAL ARCTIC INTRUSIONS IN THIS
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY GLOBALS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK QPF SIGNAL
DEVELOPING WITHIN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW. SOME
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL H5 TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD
OUR REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL AGAIN
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS, BUT VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OUTSIDE OF FRICTION ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE LIMITED. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST WILL DECLINE LATER THIS EVENING AS A LINE
OF CONVECTION MOVES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECT REDUCED IFR CIGS/VIS. OTHERWISE, VIS WILL
BECOME AN ISSUES ALONG THE MS GULF COAST WHERE FOG AND DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS AND DRIFT INLAND OVER GPT. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CONDITIONS...VFR FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
(FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES AND SCAS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DUE INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW BY AROUND MIDDAY. AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
SLIDES NORTHWARD OVER THE COOLER LOCAL WATERS, EXPECT MORE MARINE
FOG DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, FOG POTENTIAL DROPS DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND OVERALL LOOKS LIKE MARINE.
(FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 71 44 68 / 90 30 0 0
BTR 62 74 47 71 / 90 20 0 0
ASD 62 73 47 69 / 60 30 0 0
MSY 62 72 49 67 / 60 20 0 0
GPT 60 70 47 67 / 40 50 0 0
PQL 62 74 47 72 / 20 60 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
577.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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