094
FXUS64 KLIX 310943
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR A TYLERTOWN-HAMMOND-HOUMA LINE AT
3 AM CST. SEEING SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP (10-15F IN 15
MINUTES) BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, AS
BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB ALSO GUSTED TO 40+ MPH. BASED ON OBS IN LCH
CWA, THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
CONVECTION, BUT GUIDANCE CERTAINLY DIDN'T CATCH IT WELL. LIKELY TO
BE UPDATING HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS MULTIPLE TIMES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BEHIND FRONT, SO WILL NEED AT LEAST
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING BEFORE TRULY DRY AIR
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S NOW ARE LIKELY TO BE
IN THE 40S BY NIGHTFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IF WE CAN GET SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON, LOWER 70S STILL LOOKS ATTAINABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT PROBABLY WON'T GET MUCH PAST 70 ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO
LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IF WINDS GO
CALM.
WILL PROBABLY ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO RUN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE CONSIDERING CANCELING, AS TRAFFIC CAMS DO SHOW SOME SORE
SPOTS, BUT NOT AS MANY AS WHEN IT WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER MEXICO AND
ESSENTIALLY REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY ZONAL OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AT MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH FORECAST QPF TOTALS LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL SEEM COOL, BUT
ACTUALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
HIGHS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE
10-15F, OR MORE, ABOVE THE NORMALS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER AND MID
60S. WON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 80F,
ESPECIALLY AT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AFTER ALL, MULTIPLE LOCATIONS
REACHED 80 YESTERDAY, AND MOST OF THE AREA THAT DIDN'T, WAS IN THE
UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU JAN 30 2025
IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO BUILD DOWN THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
LINE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 0600-0700 UTC ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND
ARRIVING TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR AROUND 1100-1200 UTC. THIS LINE
WILL START AS PREDOMINANTLY TSRA AND WEAKEN TO -SHRA AS IT MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT. HEAVIER RAINFALL AT BTR, MCB, HDC COULD PRODUCE
VIS REDUCTIONS, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR TO LIFR REGARDLESS.
TEMPOS REFLECT THIS EVOLUTION AT TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VIS WILL
BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG THE MS GULF COAST WHERE FOG IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AND DRIFT INLAND OVER GPT FOR PERIODS
BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BETTER CONDITIONS...VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY AFTER 1200 UTC FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
WILL LEAVE ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING, AS MOST EXPIRE
IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS ANYWAY. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO NOT
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN THE WAKE OF THE
ADVISORY. BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT, WIND FIELDS OVER
THE GULF ARE RELATIVELY WEAK, AND DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 69 42 67 43 / 40 0 0 0
BTR 73 45 71 45 / 30 0 0 0
ASD 73 45 69 44 / 30 0 0 0
MSY 72 48 66 47 / 30 0 0 0
GPT 71 45 67 43 / 50 0 0 0
PQL 75 45 71 43 / 50 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ058-060-
064-069-070-076>078-080-082-084-087-089.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ570-572-575-577.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...RW
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