492
FXUS64 KLIX 311735
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1135 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
BARRING AN UNEXPECTED SURPRISE, WILL CANCEL THE LAND BASED DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AT 6 AM FOR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AROUND
THE TIDAL LAKES AS THE RAIN AND LOWER DEW POINTS ARE ENDING THE
ADVECTIVE FOG THREAT WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER. WILL LEAVE IT IN
EFFECT A BIT LONGER ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST WITH LOW VISIBILITIES
AT BILOXI/KEESLER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR A TYLERTOWN-HAMMOND-HOUMA LINE AT
3 AM CST. SEEING SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP (10-15F IN 15
MINUTES) BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, AS
BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB ALSO GUSTED TO 40+ MPH. BASED ON OBS IN LCH
CWA, THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
CONVECTION, BUT GUIDANCE CERTAINLY DIDN'T CATCH IT WELL. LIKELY TO
BE UPDATING HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS MULTIPLE TIMES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BEHIND FRONT, SO WILL NEED AT LEAST
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING BEFORE TRULY DRY AIR
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S NOW ARE LIKELY TO BE
IN THE 40S BY NIGHTFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IF WE CAN GET SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON, LOWER 70S STILL LOOKS ATTAINABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT PROBABLY WON'T GET MUCH PAST 70 ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO
LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IF WINDS GO
CALM.
WILL PROBABLY ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO RUN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE CONSIDERING CANCELING, AS TRAFFIC CAMS DO SHOW SOME SORE
SPOTS, BUT NOT AS MANY AS WHEN IT WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER MEXICO AND
ESSENTIALLY REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY ZONAL OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AT MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A
HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH FORECAST QPF TOTALS LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL SEEM COOL, BUT
ACTUALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
HIGHS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE
10-15F, OR MORE, ABOVE THE NORMALS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER AND MID
60S. WON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 80F,
ESPECIALLY AT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AFTER ALL, MULTIPLE LOCATIONS
REACHED 80 YESTERDAY, AND MOST OF THE AREA THAT DIDN'T, WAS IN THE
UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES, BUT ALL OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE WINDS RELAX TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE WELL ABOVE ANY
IMPACT CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME WITH WESTERN
TERMINALS (KBTR/KMCB/KHDC) GENERALLY REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS,
MIDDLE ONES (KHUM/KNEW/KMSY/KASD) AT MVFR AND KGPT/KBIX AT OR
BELOW FIELD MINIMA. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KGPT AND KBIX IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION REACHES
THERE, BUT THEY COULD ALSO SEE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS WITH THE
CONVECTION. WHILE TERMINALS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CEILINGS
BEHIND THE CONVECTION, THERE REMAINS TSRA/SHRA WEST OF THE
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER, SO IT MAY BE MIDDAY BEFORE THREAT DIMINISHES
COMPLETELY. BEYOND THAT POINT, VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
WILL LEAVE ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING, AS MOST EXPIRE
IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS ANYWAY. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF ENOUGH TO NOT
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN THE WAKE OF THE
ADVISORY. BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT, WIND FIELDS OVER
THE GULF ARE RELATIVELY WEAK, AND DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 69 42 67 43 / 60 0 0 0
BTR 73 45 71 45 / 50 0 0 0
ASD 73 45 69 44 / 50 0 0 0
MSY 72 48 66 47 / 50 0 0 0
GPT 71 45 67 43 / 40 0 0 0
PQL 75 45 71 43 / 70 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
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