203
FXUS64 KLIX 312130
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
A VERY BENIGN AND MILD STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. A ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF
SOUTH AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SAME, A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
WILL SHIFT FROM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT TO EAST OF THE AREA BY
TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND MOIST RETURN FROM THE
GULF TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IS LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THIS LENDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT GIVEN THE SMALL SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS,
AND THIS RESULTS IN WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. A SLIGHTLY LARGER DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN, BUT WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
INCREASING AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON
MONDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE A FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WARM AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A VERY SPRING LIKE FEEL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL EARLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EACH DAY. A FEW LOCATIONS SHOULD EVEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST AS OVERALL MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
LIMITED IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FLOWING IN WILL ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH READINGS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
THE ONE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THAT WE COULD SEE WITH THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IS THE PROSPECT FOR
ADVECTION FOG FORMATION EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON BOUNDARY LAYER WIND DIRECTION AND STRENGTH AND THE DEWPOINT IN
RELATION TO THE NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURE. A LESSER CONCERN
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED DUE TO A LACK OF ANY
STRONG FORCING MECHANISM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES OVER THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES, BUT ALL OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE WINDS RELAX TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE WELL ABOVE ANY
IMPACT CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL
IMPACT THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, AND A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GULF TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 43 67 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 45 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 44 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 49 65 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 46 64 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 43 67 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page