373
FXUS64 KLIX 012334
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
534 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
ZONAL FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME, A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST . THIS WILL KEEP A
WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S. AS DEWPOINTS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD, OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY RADIATION FOG BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. BY MONDAY
NIGHT, THE FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND MORE DENSE AS DEWPOINTS
CLIMB CLOSER TO THE NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES. OUTSIDE OF THE
FOG POTENTIAL, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSES BY, BUT NO IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE FLOW PATTERN TURNING MORE
ZONAL ALOFT. OTHERWISE, A WARM AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EACH DAY, AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST AS OVERALL MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS LIMITED IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE OF THE
FORECAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FLOWING IN WILL ALSO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THE TWO PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE
PROSPECT FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE RISK OF CONTINUED ADVECTION FOG
DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. FOR THE FOG THREAT, ANY ADVECTION FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
DIRECTION AND STRENGTH AND THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE IN RELATION
TO THE NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURE. CURRENTLY, MODEL SOUNDING
ANALYSIS IS INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADVECTION FOG TO
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THIS WEEK. A LESSER CONCERN WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A VERY WEAK VORT MAX SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO FORM
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE FORECAST
INCLUDES A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND SHORT- LIVED DUE TO A LACK
OF ANY STRONG FORCING MECHANISM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG AND INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT VIS REDUCTIONS AT MOST TERMINALS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CONCERNS. -BL
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2025
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
AND SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET. SEA FOG WILL BE A CONCERN
EACH NIGHT FROM MONDAY ONWARD, DUE TO THE WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 43 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 45 72 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 43 69 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 48 68 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 45 66 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 41 69 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...PG
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