253
FXUS64 KLIX 030523
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA, AND THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES SUPPRESSED DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. THE DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF
TO USHER IN A VERY SPRING LIKE PERIOD OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE 70S AND LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.
THIS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY COOL
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT. AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY DENSE
RADIATION FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM EACH NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES AND WINDS TURNS CALM. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS SUPPORTED BY LIGHT BOUNDARY WINDS OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. THE DEWPOINT DIFFERENTIAL FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS
ALSO QUITE CLOSE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT ONSHORE WINDS OF
LESS THAN 5 MPH WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG OFFSHORE FROM MOVING INLAND.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, AND EVEN THEN, THE CHANCES ARE SLIM AT BEST. THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. JUST ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
THROUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW WEAK AND LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE RIVER PARISHES AND METRO BATON
ROUGE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.
FORTUNATELY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEARBY DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS, AND THIS WILL
KEEP DEEPER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM FORMING. ANY RAIN SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTSIDE OF THAT VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE DUE TO A PERSISTENT ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE. HOWEVER, IN THE LOW
LEVELS, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS WARMER AND
MORE HUMID THAN AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. THE OTHER CHANGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF ADVECTION FOG TO IMPACT THE
REGION. THIS ADVECTION FOG WILL MOST LIKELY BE BOTH WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE WITH IMPACTS BEGINNING EACH EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. THIS FOG IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME, BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HANG OUT A FEW HOURS MORE BEFORE SOME PATCHY
FOG STARTS TO SET IN FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS (10-12Z). FOG
COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR ASD OR GPT IN PARTICULAR
BUT ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR. AFTER 14-15Z
FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND VFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. -BL
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2025
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR MARINERS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK IS THE HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG WILL
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
BRIEFLY CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY INTO THE
AREA. THE FOG WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR STILL LINGERS, BUT DENSE FOG WILL BECOME A BIGGER
CONCERN WAS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG CONCERNS, WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY
ADVISORY LEVELS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 48 77 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 52 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 50 74 55 77 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 54 75 59 75 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 50 69 55 72 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 48 71 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...PG
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