831
FXUS64 KLIX 031746
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1146 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED CEILING AND
VISIBILITY DROPS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR LAND BASED ZONES UNTIL 9 AM
CST. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING ONCE THE SUN
GETS UP AND AIR STARTS MOVING A BIT.
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED JUST SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS, WITH UPPER RIDGES CENTERED OVER CUBA AND THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS. OTHER THAN THE PATCHES OF FOG NOTED ABOVE,
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AT 3 AM CST WITH MOST TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THE EXCEPTION WAS 41 AT PASCAGOULA.
THE UPPER PATTERN ISN'T GOING TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
LEVELS, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
AND IT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY, BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL FINE TUNE THAT POTENTIAL. LIKELY TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 0.5 INCHES TO ABOUT 1.3
INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NBM DETERMINISTIC IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE FIT THAT
DESCRIPTION. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THERE. DID TRIM
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE PASCAGOULA/PEARL RIVER BASINS DUE TO
DRAINAGE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING PRETTY MUCH ZONAL THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. UPPER FORCING REMAINS VERY WEAK, SO ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED. IF
THERE'S A FAVORED DAY FOR PRECIPITATION, IT MIGHT BE WEDNESDAY,
WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE LEVELS MIGHT BE A
LITTLE HIGHER. LIKELY TO STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS, CONSIDERING THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE.
STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LOW. FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, AND
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE MUCH OF THE AREA REMAIN
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY HIT 80 DEGREES OR
HIGHER ON MULTIPLE DAYS DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH A
FEW RECORDS PERHAPS THREATENED ON THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MAY COOL THINGS OFF A FEW DEGREES, BUT
PROBABLY STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH TERMINALS
ALREADY OR CLOSE TO VFR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE
REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS.
AGAIN EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR AROUND 15Z. LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE (SCT-
BKN) CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND FL025.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST MON FEB 3 2025
GENERALLY, THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 79 57 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 82 61 82 62 / 0 0 10 0
ASD 77 55 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 77 58 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 70 53 72 55 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 76 53 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...RW
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