433
FXUS64 KLIX 032334 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
534 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR APALACHEE BAY WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS RIGHT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY, THE WEAKER WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE SHOULD AIDE IN AREAS OF FOG.
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE LAST 12 HOURS SHOWED MOST
OF THE DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT WAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-
10/12 CORRIDORS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SIMILAR AREAS BUT WITH
POSSIBLY A SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH EXTENT TO BE IMPACTED BY LOWER
VISIBILITIES. THUS, IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL BE
ISSUING ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD, JUST ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER
THAN NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON MARINE FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO THE FACT
THAT SURFACE WATER TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE DEWPOINTS AND EVEN FORECAST
ONES. NEVERTHELESS, NOT A ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG AT
THE LAND/MARINE OVERLAP.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL FLATTEN
THE UPPER RIDGE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
BUT DOUBTFUL ANYONE WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.
THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK ONWARD. HARD TO BELIEVE THAT JUST 2 WEEKS AGO THE ENTIRE LOCAL
AREA WAS BURIED UNDER SEVERAL INCHES TO 1 FOOT OF SNOW AND SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS JUST 2 WEEKS AGO TOMORROW. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH
SATURDAY ARE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE RECORDS DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
SPECIFIC DAY. DID TAKE A VERY QUICK GLANCE AT CLIMATE DATA FROM FEW
PREVIOUS YEARS WHEN ARCTIC AIRMASSES SPILLED INTO THE LOCAL AREA
(1895, 1899, AND 1962)...DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE UNCOMMON FOR BITTER
COLD TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DECENT WARM UP INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER
AIR NOT UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
VFR ONGOING, HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS EXPECTED AS
PATCHY (SOMETIMES DENSE) FOG DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING AND EVEN SOME
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IFR OR MVFR CIGS UP UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BUT FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST MON FEB 3 2025
RELATIVELY STAGNANT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR APALACHEE BAY WILL SPREAD CLOSER THE THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. NOT GOING TO CHANGE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION,
BUT MAY WEAKEN ALREADY LIGHT WINDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH DO HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL LAKES AND
NEARSHORE WATERS, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AND DENSITY
DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM WATER SFC TEMPS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD BRING
OFFSHORE WINDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 76 59 76 / 0 10 0 10
BTR 63 81 62 79 / 0 10 0 20
ASD 58 76 58 74 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 60 75 59 74 / 0 0 0 20
GPT 55 71 56 70 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 53 76 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
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