077
FXUS64 KLIX 041754
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
WE ARE STUCK BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. ONE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER NE MEXICO
AND THE OTHER IS A COLD FRONT FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO KENTUCKY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY NNE AND GRADUALLY OPEN INTO A
TROUGH BY LATE WED. THE FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL STALL LATE TODAY
OVER NORTHERN LA AND CENTRAL MS THEN MOVE BACK NORTH WED. THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP
DRAW AND FOCUS SOME OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE GULF THAT SHOULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AT AND
BEYOND THE COAST WED. SOME OF THIS COULD REACH INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK FOCUSED ENOUGH OR UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING INLAND. THIS IS DIFFERENT SOUTH OF THE COAST. WED
WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE ONLY REAL IMPACTS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG. DEW PT
TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO MEET SST, SO MARINE AREAS CAN SUPPORT FOG. THE
STRONGEST ADVECTIVE PATTERN IS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING, SO WE STILL
HAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATION FOG AND A CLOUD DECK AT
3300FT IS NOT ALLOWING FOG TO FORM UNDER IT THIS MORNING. BUT, AS WE
SLOWLY TRANSFORM INTO AN ADVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, THIS COULD CHANGE
BEFORE DAYLIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OVER MANY LOCATIONS. FOR THIS
REASON, WE WILL LEAVE THE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW AND
REASSESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE ADVECTIVE PATTERN IS A BIT MORE
ROBUST TONIGHT AS SFC AIR DEVELOPS HIGH RH AND DEW PTS THAT MATCH
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SST ALONG WITH ONSHORE SFC WINDS. SO,
AREAS OF FOG COULD OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
FOG WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST ISSUE ON THE TABLE UNTIL WE GET INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS WHEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARD OR INTO
THE AREA WITH A VERY STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT INSTABILITY AT FIRST
GLANCE, DOES NOT LOOK VERY HIGH WHICH WOULD KEEP STORMS TO A
MINIMUM. THIS FRONT IS ADVERTISED TO STALL NEAR OR AT THE COAST.
THIS COULD OCCUR, BUT MAY ALSO GET BROUGHT BACK TO THE NORTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST. BUT THIS IS QUITE A WAYS OUT STILL, SO WE WILL
KEEP UP WITH TRENDS TO SEE IF THERE ARE CHANGES AND WHAT THOSE
CHANGES ARE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS A MIX OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS AT MVFR OR HIGHER LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL MOSTLY
LIFT TO ALL VFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A SIMILAR SITUATION
FROM LAST NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE FOG WITH MORE ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF DENSE FOG. IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT EITHER FROM LOWER
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES, LIKELY NOT BOTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
E THROUGH S WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN 15KT OR LESS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FOR
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAINLY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ESPECIALLY THE
MISS RIVER NIGHTLY. WINDS OVER THE RIVER ARE SOUTHERLY SO THE NORTH
END OF N-S ORIENTED RIVER RUNS WILL HAVE FOG DEVELOP IN THOSE BENDS
THIS MORNING. WHERE THE RIVER RUNS PARALLEL TO THE WIND DIRECTION
EACH NIGHT WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME FOG FORMATION IN THE BENDS TO THE
NORTH END OF THOSE RUNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 78 61 78 62 / 10 0 10 0
BTR 82 63 82 65 / 10 10 10 10
ASD 77 58 76 61 / 0 10 10 10
MSY 76 59 76 63 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 72 57 70 59 / 0 10 10 10
PQL 78 57 76 60 / 0 10 0 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE
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