339
FXUS64 KLIX 042105
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IS
TRANSITIONING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIP INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS
RIGHT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS INCREASING
500MB HEIGHT REGIME HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. IN FACT,
FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THAT'LL CONTINUE OVER TO THE DAYTIME TEMPS WITH NEAR RECORDS
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THIS WARM UP, LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER VISIBILITY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
ELEVATED WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT AS WELL AS A WEAK INVERSION
IN PLACE SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT VISIBILITIES FROM BEING LOW
ENOUGH FOR DENSE RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP. IT'S A TOUGHER CALL
ALONG THE MS COAST THAT IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WILL
HAVE LIGHTER WINDS. AS OF NOW, HOLDING OFF ON A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL FLATTEN
THE UPPER RIDGE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
BUT DOUBTFUL ANYONE WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.
THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HARD TO BELIEVE THAT JUST 2
WEEKS AGO THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA WAS BURIED UNDER SEVERAL INCHES TO
1 FOOT OF SNOW AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH
SUNDAY ARE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE RECORDS DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
SPECIFIC DAY. IT'S NOT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND THAT MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER AIR POSSIBLY
MOVING IN AND LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE LESS BULLISH THAN 24 HRS AGO.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS A MIX OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS AT MVFR OR HIGHER LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL MOSTLY LIFT
TO ALL VFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A SIMILAR SITUATION FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG
WITH MORE ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF DENSE FOG. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT EITHER FROM LOWER CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES, LIKELY NOT BOTH.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
RELATIVELY STAGNANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF HAS SPREAD CLOSER
THE THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGE IN ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION,
BUT DID WEAKEN ALREADY LIGHT WINDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH DO HAVE FOG IN THE FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON
COVERAGE AND DENSITY DUE TO WATER TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FORECAST
DEWPOINTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD BRING
OFFSHORE WINDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 78 62 81 / 10 10 0 10
BTR 64 82 65 84 / 10 10 0 10
ASD 59 75 62 78 / 0 0 10 20
MSY 60 75 63 78 / 0 10 10 20
GPT 57 70 59 71 / 0 10 10 20
PQL 57 75 60 76 / 0 0 10 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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