044
FXUS64 KLIX 042320 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
520 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IS
TRANSITIONING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIP INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS
RIGHT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS INCREASING
500MB HEIGHT REGIME HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. IN FACT,
FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THAT'LL CONTINUE OVER TO THE DAYTIME TEMPS WITH NEAR RECORDS
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THIS WARM UP, LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER VISIBILITY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
ELEVATED WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT AS WELL AS A WEAK INVERSION
IN PLACE SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT VISIBILITIES FROM BEING LOW
ENOUGH FOR DENSE RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP. IT'S A TOUGHER CALL
ALONG THE MS COAST THAT IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WILL
HAVE LIGHTER WINDS. AS OF NOW, HOLDING OFF ON A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL FLATTEN
THE UPPER RIDGE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
BUT DOUBTFUL ANYONE WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.
THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HARD TO BELIEVE THAT JUST 2
WEEKS AGO THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA WAS BURIED UNDER SEVERAL INCHES TO
1 FOOT OF SNOW AND SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH
SUNDAY ARE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE RECORDS DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
SPECIFIC DAY. IT'S NOT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND THAT MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER AIR POSSIBLY
MOVING IN AND LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE LESS BULLISH THAN 24 HRS AGO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
VFR MOSTLY THIS EVENING WILL AGAIN DROP OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
MORE PATCHY FOG WILL LIMIT VIS RESPECTIVELY WITH MOST TERMINALS
DROPPING TO IFR IF NOT BY VIS THEN BY CIG. LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING BACK TO VFR.
SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
SHOULD MOSTLY STAY BELOW 10KTS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
RELATIVELY STAGNANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF HAS SPREAD CLOSER
THE THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGE IN ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION,
BUT DID WEAKEN ALREADY LIGHT WINDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH DO HAVE FOG IN THE FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON
COVERAGE AND DENSITY DUE TO WATER TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FORECAST
DEWPOINTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD BRING
OFFSHORE WINDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 78 62 81 / 10 10 0 10
BTR 64 82 65 84 / 10 10 0 10
ASD 59 75 62 78 / 0 0 10 20
MSY 60 75 63 78 / 0 10 10 20
GPT 57 70 59 71 / 0 10 10 20
PQL 57 75 60 76 / 0 0 10 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
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