676
FXUS64 KLIX 292320
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
620 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. INCREASED HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS KEPT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIP LIMITED. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCH
LIGHT FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WEST OF THE
ROCKIES MERGING INTO ONE AS TROUGH/S PUSH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. IT'LL TAKE A COUPLE
DAYS FROM NOW TO SATURATE SUB-1" PW COLUMN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT HAPPENING BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, COOLING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PRETTY DECENT INSTABILTY. NOT SURE
WHICH IS MORE NOTABLE, WBZ OF 9KFT OR THE VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL. THOSE 2 FEATURES STANDOUT AS HAIL AND
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH SPC OUTLOOK DOESN'T INCLUDE ANY OF THE CWA IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL, SHEAR IS ONLY ONE PARAMETER. LOCAL SUB TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THURS.
ON FRIDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
2ND SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, SLOW SAGS INTO
CWA. THE SETUP LOOKS LESS SEVERE AND MORESO HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF IF THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
SATURDAY, THAT'S A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY MOVES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND. LIKE THIS WEEK'S SETUP, A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
IT AND BEGIN AT LEAST KNOCKING DOWN POPS SOME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT FORECAST ISSUANCE, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BKN025 CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN ONE OR TWO SPOTS. ANY MORE WIDESPREAD
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 09-10Z WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR AT KMCB. THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14-15Z
WEDNESDAY AS HEATING MIXES OUT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SUSTAINED
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY, WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE POSSIBLE. THOSE WINDS WILL RELAX AROUND
SUNSET TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS
WILL TRANSTION TO MORE DUE EAST AS IT GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. THAT'LL BOTH
KEEP WINDS IN OUR MARINE ZONES ELEVATED AND ONSHORE. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DIRECTIONAL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO DUE SOUTH SIMPLY WITH
THE POSITION CHANGE OF THE RIDGE. RECENT OBS SHOW SPEEDS RIGHT AT
THAT EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLD, SO WILL HAVE THE HEADLINE OUT FOR
TONIGHT. WEAKER WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FIZZLES OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 86 68 86 / 0 0 0 70
BTR 69 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 50
ASD 69 86 70 86 / 0 0 10 40
MSY 72 87 73 87 / 0 0 10 30
GPT 71 83 71 83 / 0 0 10 30
PQL 67 85 68 84 / 0 0 10 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME
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