001
FXUS64 KLIX 300442
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1142 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. INCREASED HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS KEPT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIP LIMITED. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCH
LIGHT FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED IN
THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WEST OF THE
ROCKIES MERGING INTO ONE AS TROUGH/S PUSH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. IT'LL TAKE A COUPLE
DAYS FROM NOW TO SATURATE SUB-1" PW COLUMN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT HAPPENING BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, COOLING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PRETTY DECENT INSTABILITY. NOT
SURE WHICH IS MORE NOTABLE, WBZ OF 9KFT OR THE VERY PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL. THOSE 2 FEATURES STANDOUT AS HAIL
AND DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH SPC OUTLOOK DOESN'T INCLUDE ANY OF THE CWA IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL, SHEAR IS ONLY ONE PARAMETER. LOCAL SUB TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THURS.
ON FRIDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
2ND SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, SLOW SAGS INTO
CWA. THE SETUP LOOKS LESS SEVERE AND MORESO HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF IF THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
SATURDAY, THAT'S A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY MOVES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND. LIKE THIS WEEK'S SETUP, A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
IT AND BEGIN AT LEAST KNOCKING DOWN POPS SOME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS IN VFR RANGE AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE FL015-FL025 RANGE THAT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME CEILINGS IN THE 09Z-13Z
TIMEFRAME. AT KMCB, IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THAT SAME WINDOW, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AROUND 14-15Z AS
MORNING INVERSION ERODES. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE A SHADE STRONGER
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 15 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE AT MOST
TERMINALS, AT LEAST BRIEFLY. THOSE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THREAT FOR MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARD 06Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE DUE EAST AS IT GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THAT'LL BOTH KEEP WINDS IN OUR MARINE ZONES ELEVATED AND ONSHORE.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DIRECTIONAL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO DUE SOUTH
SIMPLY WITH THE POSITION CHANGE OF THE RIDGE. RECENT OBS SHOW
SPEEDS RIGHT AT THAT EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLD, SO WILL HAVE THE
HEADLINE OUT FOR TONIGHT. WEAKER WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT FIZZLES OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 86 68 86 / 0 0 0 70
BTR 69 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 50
ASD 69 86 70 86 / 0 0 10 40
MSY 72 87 73 87 / 0 0 10 30
GPT 71 83 71 83 / 0 0 10 30
PQL 67 85 68 84 / 0 0 10 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME
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