650
FXUS64 KLIX 300843
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
TODAY AND THU WILL BE ALMOST DIDDO. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
ADDITION OF SOME SH/TS LATE THU. THIS WILL BE GOOD IN THE WAY THAT
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN. BUT IF THESE STORMS STALL, THEY COULD DUMP
SOME HIGH PRECIP NUMBERS. THE LARGER MSC FEATURE THAT IS SHOWN TO
MOVE IN LATE THU IS ADVERTISED TO DECAY AS IT DOES SO. BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE NEW ACTIVITY AROUND AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT ONE OF THESE COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TX AND STALL THU WHILE ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND STALLS NEAR THE LA/AR LINE FRI. THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT WILL COLD POOL OUT AND CONTINUE
TO REFIRE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE COULD BE STRONG AS WELL. DIURNALL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES HIGH GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE
STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN LA/CENTRAL MS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
BY SUN OR MON. THIS WOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP NUMBERS HIGHER THAN
NORMAL BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS THERMAL BOUNDARY INTO
MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MCB MAY SEE TEMP CIGS IN
THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. BTR COULD ALSO
HAVE TEMP MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE THU MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 15KT INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND
SPEEDS MY LOWER SAT AND EVEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY MON AND REMAIN EASTERLY AT
AROUND 10KT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SH/TS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 87 67 86 66 / 0 0 70 20
BTR 88 70 88 68 / 10 0 50 10
ASD 87 70 86 68 / 0 10 40 20
MSY 87 73 87 72 / 0 10 40 10
GPT 84 72 83 69 / 0 20 40 30
PQL 85 68 84 67 / 0 10 30 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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