164
FXUS64 KLIX 301758
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1258 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
TODAY AND THU WILL BE ALMOST DITTO. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
ADDITION OF SOME SH/TS LATE THU. THIS WILL BE GOOD IN THE WAY THAT
WE COULD USE SOME RAIN. BUT IF THESE STORMS STALL, THEY COULD DUMP
SOME HIGH PRECIP NUMBERS. THE LARGER MSC FEATURE THAT IS SHOWN TO
MOVE IN LATE THU IS ADVERTISED TO DECAY AS IT DOES SO. BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD PRODUCE NEW ACTIVITY AROUND AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT ONE OF THESE COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TX AND STALL THU WHILE ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND STALLS NEAR THE LA/AR LINE FRI. THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT WILL COLD POOL OUT AND CONTINUE
TO REFIRE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE COULD BE STRONG AS WELL. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES HIGH GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT
THE STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN LA/CENTRAL MS WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA BY SUN OR MON. THIS WOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP NUMBERS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS THERMAL
BOUNDARY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR CURRENTLY ALTHOUGH CEILINGS ARE JUST ABOVE
3KFT MVFR THRESHOLD. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
TRACKING NORTHWARD WEST OF KHDC. THE COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN TAFS BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN AT TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THOSE GUSTS WILL RELAX
THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT STEADY ONSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 15KT INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND
SPEEDS MY LOWER SAT AND EVEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY MON AND REMAIN EASTERLY AT
AROUND 10KT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SH/TS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 86 66 84 / 0 70 20 60
BTR 70 88 68 87 / 0 50 0 50
ASD 70 86 68 86 / 10 40 20 50
MSY 73 87 72 86 / 0 40 10 50
GPT 72 83 69 83 / 10 50 20 50
PQL 68 84 67 84 / 10 50 30 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE
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