684
FXUS64 KLIX 302029
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
NEW MEXICO, ANOTHER ONE OVER ID/MT, AND RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THAT RIDGE, WHICH HAS KEPT THE
LOCAL AREA POPS LIMITED AT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, IS ALREADY BECOMING
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NW. THAT
SLIGHT DECREASE IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE NORTHWESTWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND THE CWA EXPLAINS CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 2 SHORTWAVES MERGING INTO
ONE BROADER TROUGH AS THEY PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. IT'S NOT A DEEP SOURCE OF MOISTURE
BUT ENOUGH TO BRING PW'S INTO THE 1.2-1.5" RANGE.12Z CAMS SHOW A MCS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LA TOWARDS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE IN A DECAYING STATE BUT VARYING
IN TIMING OF IF THAT HAPPENS BEFORE OR AFTER IT REACHES THE LOCAL
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS SELA AND SWMS SUPPORT WEAKENING WITH
ANY DECENT INSTABILITY VERY ELEVATED. SO WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
RESIDUAL MCS BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON? THAT'LL PROBABLY BE THE
BIGGER FORECAST CHALLENGE AS CAMS ARE SPLIT ON AFTN CONVECTION.
PROBABLY LEAN TOWARDS AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL/WINDS POSSIBLE.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ON FRIDAY, A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE MS VALLEY WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
LA AND MS. SHOULD SEE A BUMP IN PWS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHICH INCLUDES THE CWA, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. MODELS SHOW MOST
OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVIER RAIN TO STILL BE OVER CENTRAL
LA/MS COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NOW SATURDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE ONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AS A STALLED
OR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND BRINGS BACK SOME NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR CURRENTLY ALTHOUGH CEILINGS ARE JUST ABOVE
3KFT MVFR THRESHOLD. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
TRACKING NORTHWARD WEST OF KHDC. THE COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
ANY MENTION IN TAFS BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AT
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THOSE GUSTS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT STEADY ONSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE DUE EAST OF HERE AS IT GETS SHOVED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THAT'LL BOTH KEEP WINDS IN OUR MARINE ZONES ELEVATED AND
ONSHORE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DIRECTIONAL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
DUE SOUTH SIMPLY WITH THE POSITION CHANGE OF THE RIDGE. RECENT OBS
SHOW SPEEDS RIGHT AT THAT EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLD, SO WILL
HAVE THE HEADLINE OUT FOR TONIGHT. WEAKER WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT FIZZLES OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 86 66 84 / 0 70 20 60
BTR 70 88 68 87 / 0 50 0 50
ASD 70 86 68 86 / 10 40 20 50
MSY 73 87 72 86 / 0 40 10 50
GPT 72 83 69 83 / 10 50 20 50
PQL 68 84 67 84 / 10 50 30 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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