647
FXUS64 KLIX 302327
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
627 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
NEW MEXICO, ANOTHER ONE OVER ID/MT, AND RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THAT RIDGE, WHICH HAS KEPT THE
LOCAL AREA POPS LIMITED AT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, IS ALREADY BECOMING
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NW. THAT
SLIGHT DECREASE IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE NORTHWESTWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND THE CWA EXPLAINS CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 2 SHORTWAVES MERGING INTO
ONE BROADER TROUGH AS THEY PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. IT'S NOT A DEEP SOURCE OF MOISTURE
BUT ENOUGH TO BRING PW'S INTO THE 1.2-1.5" RANGE.12Z CAMS SHOW A MCS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LA TOWARDS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE IN A DECAYING STATE BUT VARYING
IN TIMING OF IF THAT HAPPENS BEFORE OR AFTER IT REACHES THE LOCAL
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS SELA AND SWMS SUPPORT WEAKENING WITH
ANY DECENT INSTABILITY VERY ELEVATED. SO WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
RESIDUAL MCS BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON? THAT'LL PROBABLY BE THE
BIGGER FORECAST CHALLENGE AS CAMS ARE SPLIT ON AFTN CONVECTION.
PROBABLY LEAN TOWARDS AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL/WINDS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ON FRIDAY, A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE MS VALLEY WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
LA AND MS. SHOULD SEE A BUMP IN PWS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHICH INCLUDES THE CWA, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. MODELS SHOW MOST
OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVIER RAIN TO STILL BE OVER CENTRAL
LA/MS COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NOW SATURDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE ONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AS A STALLED
OR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND BRINGS BACK SOME NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE, EXCEPT KGPT,
WHICH WAS REPORTING BKN025. EXPECT THOSE CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ASIDE FROM THE THREAT OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL TSRA, BOTH DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVERNIGHT, AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT AREA OF STORMS IN THE KSHV AREA BACK INTO TEXAS IS
BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL CONVECTION
ALLOWING MESOSCALE MODELS (INCLUDING THE RECENT HRRR RUNS) INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR THOSE STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST OUR NORTHWEST
TERMINALS (KMCB, KBTR, KHDC) PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING. WILL USE PROB30 FOR NOW, BUT FUTURE
AMENDMENTS OR THE 06Z PACKAGE MAY NEED TO EITHER BEEF UP
PROBABILITIES OR REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY. THE EVENTUAL RESOLUTION TO
THOSE STORMS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A THREAT THERE IS FOR
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CIRRUS BLOWOFF
IS TOO THICK, IT MAY RETARD HEATING ENOUGH TO PREVENT
REDEVELOPMENT, OR MESOSCALE PROCESSES COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS TO
ONLY IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS. WILL ALSO USE PROB30 FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE DUE EAST OF HERE AS IT GETS SHOVED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THAT'LL BOTH KEEP WINDS IN OUR MARINE ZONES ELEVATED AND
ONSHORE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DIRECTIONAL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
DUE SOUTH SIMPLY WITH THE POSITION CHANGE OF THE RIDGE. RECENT OBS
SHOW SPEEDS RIGHT AT THAT EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLD, SO WILL
HAVE THE HEADLINE OUT FOR TONIGHT. WEAKER WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT FIZZLES OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 86 66 84 / 0 70 20 60
BTR 70 88 68 87 / 0 50 0 50
ASD 70 86 68 86 / 10 40 20 50
MSY 73 87 72 86 / 0 40 10 50
GPT 72 83 69 83 / 10 50 20 50
PQL 68 84 67 84 / 10 50 30 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME
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