902
FXUS64 KLIX 010453
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1153 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ADDED AN EARLIER ONSET TO SHOWERS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL
COUNTIES AND EASTERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEVELOPMENT BEGAN AROUND
10 PM CDT. ALSO SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
LOUISIANA AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTION, SO THERE IS AT LEAST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY HOLDING ONTO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
REACHING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES/PARISHES PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
THE EARLY EVENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS GOING ACCORDING TO
PLAN, WITH SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND EAST
TEXAS. THE PORTION OVER EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA IS TRACKING
EASTWARD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH SOME APPARENT WEAKENING. THE
STORMS OVER EAST TEXAS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH
CELL MOVEMENT AROUND 20 MPH.
THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING WAS RATHER DRY IN THE LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB
AND 500 MB (AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OVERALL AT 1.2 INCHES), WITH
VERY LIMITED SHEAR (0-6KM OF 16 KNOTS). THE LCH SOUNDING AT THE
SAME TIME WAS A LITTLE MORE MOIST (1.48 INCHES), MORE SHEAR (0-6KM
OF 37 KNOTS), BUT ALSO HAD A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 700 MB. MOST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS), BUT NOT ALL, ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
PRIOR TO SUNRISE, POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 AM CDT, ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY BE IN A WEAKENED STATE COMPARED TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED TO
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL INTRODUCE 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AS WELL AS DURING THE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS TO
THE WEST AND WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
NEW MEXICO, ANOTHER ONE OVER ID/MT, AND RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THAT RIDGE, WHICH HAS KEPT THE
LOCAL AREA POPS LIMITED AT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, IS ALREADY BECOMING
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NW. THAT
SLIGHT DECREASE IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE NORTHWESTWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND THE CWA EXPLAINS CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 2 SHORTWAVES MERGING INTO
ONE BROADER TROUGH AS THEY PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. IT'S NOT A DEEP SOURCE OF MOISTURE
BUT ENOUGH TO BRING PW'S INTO THE 1.2-1.5" RANGE.12Z CAMS SHOW A MCS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LA TOWARDS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE IN A DECAYING STATE BUT VARYING
IN TIMING OF IF THAT HAPPENS BEFORE OR AFTER IT REACHES THE LOCAL
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS SELA AND SWMS SUPPORT WEAKENING WITH
ANY DECENT INSTABILITY VERY ELEVATED. SO WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
RESIDUAL MCS BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON? THAT'LL PROBABLY BE THE
BIGGER FORECAST CHALLENGE AS CAMS ARE SPLIT ON AFTN CONVECTION.
PROBABLY LEAN TOWARDS AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL/WINDS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ON FRIDAY, A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE MS VALLEY WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
LA AND MS. SHOULD SEE A BUMP IN PWS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHICH INCLUDES THE CWA, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. MODELS SHOW MOST
OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVIER RAIN TO STILL BE OVER CENTRAL
LA/MS COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NOW SATURDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE ONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AS A STALLED
OR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND BRINGS BACK SOME NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND FL025 AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME, WITH A FEW
SHRA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. WILL COVER THOSE WITH VCSH AT
KGPT AT ISSUANCE. CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA REACHING
AT LEAST KBTR AND KMCB PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND FOR NOW, WILL USE
PROB30. BUT AMENDMENT MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS IF
THREAT OF DIRECT IMPACTS INCREASES. QUESTION THEN BECOMES
IF/WHEN/WHERE THE CURRENT CONVECTION DISSIPATES, AND SETS UP
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE WIND THREAT WILL
INCREASE COMPARED TO THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. THE 12Z PACKAGE WILL
LIKELY NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON
THREAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE DUE EAST OF HERE AS IT GETS SHOVED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THAT'LL BOTH KEEP WINDS IN OUR MARINE ZONES ELEVATED AND
ONSHORE. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DIRECTIONAL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
DUE SOUTH SIMPLY WITH THE POSITION CHANGE OF THE RIDGE. RECENT OBS
SHOW SPEEDS RIGHT AT THAT EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLD, SO WILL
HAVE THE HEADLINE OUT FOR TONIGHT. WEAKER WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT FIZZLES OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 86 66 84 / 20 70 20 60
BTR 70 88 68 87 / 20 50 0 50
ASD 70 86 68 86 / 10 40 20 50
MSY 73 87 72 86 / 10 40 10 50
GPT 72 83 69 83 / 30 50 20 50
PQL 68 84 67 84 / 30 50 30 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION/UPDATES...RW
MARINE...ME
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