962
FXUS64 KLIX 010822
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
LINE OF STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY ACTUALLY MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE DECAYING TOTALLY. THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY
WEAKENING SLOWLY WITH WARMING TOPS, SO THE CAMS MAY BE
REPRESENTING THIS LINE ACCURATELY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STORMS
THAT GET INTO THE AREA, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS
MORNING. THE OUTFLOWS COULD PROVIDE THE EXTRA SUPPORT TO GET NEW
ACTIVITY GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD BECOME
STRONG AND EVEN MAYBE SEVERE. BUT IF THESE STORMS STALL, THEY
COULD CAUSE SOME HIGH PRECIP NUMBERS. A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY FOR FRI WHICH COULD ALSO HAVE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE A BETTER FIT FOR FRI AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW AND SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST LATE SAT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO WILL
COME ALONG WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. THE
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SAT BRINGING
THE RAIN WITH IT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY NICE
DAY OR TWO STARTING SUN. TUE, THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WITH A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST RIDING ALONG
THIS INTERFACE. THIS COULD BRING RAIN AND A FEW STORMS BACK TO THE
AREA LATE TUE OR EARLY WED OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MCB AND BTR COULD SEE SOME
TEMP CIGS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SH/TS AROUND TODAY AND THIS WILL AFFECT SOME
TERMINALS WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS WHICH WILL BE TIMED IN THIS TAF
SET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 15KT INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND
SPEEDS MY LOWER SAT AND EVEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY MON AND REMAIN EASTERLY AT
AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SH/TS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 86 65 84 64 / 70 30 60 60
BTR 88 68 87 67 / 60 10 50 50
ASD 87 67 85 67 / 40 30 50 60
MSY 87 72 86 70 / 30 20 40 50
GPT 84 69 83 68 / 40 30 50 60
PQL 84 66 83 67 / 40 30 50 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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