955
FXUS64 KLIX 012336
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
636 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS, TROUGHING IN A GENERAL SENSE IS IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ROCKIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. MORE SPECIFICALLY, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN VARYING POINTS AND ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE. THE EFFECTS ON
LOCAL WEATHER MAINLY COMES FROM LACK OF RIDGING SUBSIDENCE, MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. AFTER
A MORNING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DECAYING MCS, ITS BEEN FAIRLY
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
SHOWS JUST THE BEGINNINGS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
STREAKS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CAMS, WHICH GENERALLY DID QUITE WELL
THIS MORNING, SHOW FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG/NORTH OF I-
12 IN LA AND I-10 IN MS. THAT AREA, PER PW PLOT, IS WHERE COLUMN
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE GREATEST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A POCKET OF
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KBTR AND
KMCB SHOW AMPLE CAPE AND PLENTY STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES. SO WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. DID
ADJUST LATEST AFTN POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. AFTER
NOCTURNAL AND MORNING LULL IN CONVECTION, FRIDAY SHOULD BRING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT MORE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE COMPARED TO TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING T/TD PROFILES HAVE MORE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK THAN SEVERE. CAM MAX PRECIP FCTS SUGGEST POCKETS
OF ISOLATED 3-4" POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE MS VALLEY WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH THROUGH LA AND MS. SHOULD SEE A BUMP IN PW'S ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE CWA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. MODELS SHOW
MOST OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVIER RAIN TO STILL BE OVER
CENTRAL LA/MS BUT SOME STREET FLOODING CERTAINLY WOULDN'T BE A
SURPRISE.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA, WHICH KEEPS THE
FRONT AND MOISTURE GOING SOUTH AND OUT OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREAS.
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DO LOOK A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH STALLING AND CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW. FOR ALL INTENTS
AND PURPOSES, THAT DOESN'T CHANGE THE FORECAST LOCALLY OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND MAYBE A LONGER DURATION OF NOT
RAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA BETWEEN KBTR AND KMCB AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. THESE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KMCB AND KHDC TO
NECESSITATE USE OF TEMPO TSRA THROUGH 02Z. BEYOND 02Z, MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 10Z, WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS NEAR FL015 WILL AGAIN DEVELOP. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY MID MORNING. WILL CARRY PROB30 FOR TSRA IN
MOST TERMINALS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. STORMS MAY STAY NORTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS
TERMINALS OF KMSY AND KNEW UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. NO MENTION OF
TSRA AT KHUM IN THIS PACKAGE, BUT THREAT IS NON-ZERO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS
WILL TRANSITION TO MORE DUE EAST OF HERE AS IT GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THAT'LL BOTH KEEP WINDS IN OUR MARINE ZONES ELEVATED AND ONSHORE.
SHOULD SEE THAT GRADUAL DIRECTIONAL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO DUE
SOUTH BY LATE TOMORROW.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THOSE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
BRINGS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COME BACK BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 85 64 78 / 30 60 60 80
BTR 67 87 67 81 / 10 50 60 80
ASD 67 86 66 81 / 20 50 60 90
MSY 71 87 71 82 / 10 50 60 80
GPT 70 83 69 81 / 30 50 60 90
PQL 66 84 66 82 / 30 50 60 90
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME
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