355
FXUS64 KLIX 020854
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACCOMPANY IT. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE A VERY
GOOD FIT FOR TODAY AS WELL. THE SEVERE WX VARIABLE WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABLITY OF OCCURANCE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS THEN HAIL AND FINALLY
TORNADIC. ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT A SEVERE WX PARAMETER, IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE TODAY AS STORM MOTION VECTORS WILL BE 180
WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS. THIS CAUSES TRAINING TO OCCUR WHEN
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD AND THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF THOSE.
THE NEXT 48 HOURS MOST AREA SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OR RAINFALL,
WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE ANY ISSUES, BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE ALMOST DOUBLE THESE AMOUNTS AND IF
THIS COMES WITHIN A SHORT TIME, IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FIRST MAIN AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
NOON TODAY AND HELP DEVELOP SOME SH/TS AROUND THE AREA. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST TRAINING PROBS TODAY, SO
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD OF STAYING IN
THOSE SAME AREAS. THE NEXT AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE MAIN THEME.
THIS AREA IS NOW GETTING STARTED THIS MORNING OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF BROKEN STORM
CLUSTERS THAT WILL MOVE SE. THESE CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING THE HIGHEST PROB OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. TIMING IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY
THE LEAST WITH ALL OF THIS OCCURRING AT DIFFERENT TIMES. BUT WE WILL
GIVE IT A SHOT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
STORM AROUND, THE FIRST AREA OVER SOUTHTX/WESTERNGULF WILL START
DEVELOPING STRONGER CONVECTION AROUND 3P TODAY. THE SECOND MAIN
FEATURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 6P
TODAY AND THIS WILL SIMPLY ENHANCE WHAT IS ALREADY HERE. THE COLD
POOLING WILL FINALLY UNDERCUT ALL OF THIS DURING THE EVENING CAUSING
SOME STABILITY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVENTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING, THIS REPRIEVE WILL LAST UNTIL 5A SAT WHEN THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE H3 LONG WAVE TROUGH
ENHANCING LIFT ONCE AGAIN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DIG
THE H3 TROUGH, SO THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME ONCE IT GETS HERE. BUT THE STRONG/SEVERE
PORTION OF THIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT BY 6P SAT. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME SHOWERS LINGERING BUT EVEN THOSE SHOULD BE OUT BY MIDNIGHT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT
BRINGING THE RAIN WITH IT. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY NICE DAY OR TWO
STARTING SUN. TUE, THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST RIDING ALONG THIS
INTERFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA TUE
AND WED AND MAY EVEN TIP INTO THU. EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. BUT WE WILL TAKE THIS ONE
SYSTEM AT A TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR FOR MUCH OF TODAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. ASD...MCB AND BTR COULD
SEE SOME TEMP CIGS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE TONIGHT AND ALL TERMINALS
WILL HAVE HIGHER PROBS LATER TODAY OF IFR CIGS/VIS WITH TSRA. WE
WILL TIME THESE IN THE 12Z TAF SET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 15KT INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND
SPEEDS MAY LOWER SAT AND EVEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY MON AND REMAIN EASTERLY AT
AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 86 65 78 55 / 50 70 80 10
BTR 88 67 80 58 / 50 60 80 10
ASD 86 67 81 59 / 30 60 90 30
MSY 86 70 81 66 / 40 70 90 30
GPT 83 68 81 62 / 30 70 90 40
PQL 83 67 81 59 / 30 60 90 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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