300
FXUS64 KLIX 021139 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
639 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACCOMPANY IT. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE A VERY
GOOD FIT FOR TODAY AS WELL. THE SEVERE WX VARIABLE WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS THEN HAIL AND
FINALLY TORNADIC. ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT A SEVERE WX PARAMETER,
IT WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE TABLE TODAY AS STORM MOTION VECTORS
WILL BE 180 WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS. THIS CAUSES TRAINING TO
OCCUR WHEN DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD AND THERE WILL BE NO
SHORTAGE OF THOSE. THE NEXT 48 HOURS MOST AREA SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES OR RAINFALL, WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE ANY ISSUES, BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE ALMOST DOUBLE
THESE AMOUNTS AND IF THIS COMES WITHIN A SHORT TIME, IT COULD
CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES. THE FIRST MAIN AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY NOON TODAY AND HELP DEVELOP SOME
SH/TS AROUND THE AREA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE
STRONGEST TRAINING PROBS TODAY, SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF STAYING IN THOSE SAME AREAS. THE NEXT
AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE MAIN THEME. THIS AREA IS NOW GETTING
STARTED THIS MORNING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF BROKEN STORM CLUSTERS THAT WILL
MOVE SE. THESE CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE HIGHEST
PROB OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY. TIMING IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST WITH
ALL OF THIS OCCURRING AT DIFFERENT TIMES. BUT WE WILL GIVE IT A
SHOT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM
AROUND, THE FIRST AREA OVER SOUTH TX/WESTERN GULF WILL START
DEVELOPING STRONGER CONVECTION AROUND 3P TODAY. THE SECOND MAIN
FEATURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
6P TODAY AND THIS WILL SIMPLY ENHANCE WHAT IS ALREADY HERE. THE
COLD POOLING WILL FINALLY UNDERCUT ALL OF THIS DURING THE EVENING
CAUSING SOME STABILITY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING, THIS REPRIEVE WILL LAST UNTIL 5A
SAT WHEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE H3
LONG WAVE TROUGH ENHANCING LIFT ONCE AGAIN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO DIG THE H3 TROUGH, SO THE FRONT THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME ONCE IT GETS HERE.
BUT THE STRONG/SEVERE PORTION OF THIS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT BY 6P
SAT. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING BUT EVEN THOSE
SHOULD BE OUT BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. (TE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT
BRINGING THE RAIN WITH IT. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY NICE DAY OR TWO
STARTING SUN. TUE, THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST RIDING ALONG THIS
INTERFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA TUE
AND WED AND MAY EVEN TIP INTO THU. EACH OF THESE DAYS COULD ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. BUT WE WILL TAKE THIS ONE
SYSTEM AT A TIME. (TE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A MIX OF MOSTLY MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL
START TO BUILD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TIMED
WITH TEMPS/PROBS RESPECTIVELY. IN CONVECTION EXPECT VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT GENERALLY 10-15KT.
(FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AROUND 15KT INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND
SPEEDS MAY LOWER SAT AND EVEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY MON AND REMAIN EASTERLY AT
AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. (TE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 86 65 78 55 / 50 70 80 10
BTR 88 67 80 58 / 50 60 80 10
ASD 86 67 81 59 / 30 60 90 30
MSY 86 70 81 66 / 40 70 90 30
GPT 83 68 81 62 / 30 70 90 40
PQL 83 67 81 59 / 30 60 90 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...TE
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