787
FXUS64 KLIX 021951
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
251 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
TONIGHT, A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY RELATING TO THE STRENGTH OF
THIS LINE. BUT GENERALLY, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10/12.
WE ARE OUTLOOKED IN AN ENHANCED TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
BY SPC. GUSTY WINDS (60+MPH) WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERNMOST
AREAS LIKE SW MS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN LOCATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE EVENING THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
INDICATED. GENERALLY, THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING OUR
AREA BY AROUND 7-8PM AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ENTIRELY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY,
BUT THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE SEVERE AT THAT POINT AND WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN ANY RISK AREA FOR SATURDAY.
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ONCE THESE STORMS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY. MSW
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT, LOOKING AT THE MODELS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. IT IS A LITTLE FAR OUT FOR DETAILS,
BUT STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING FOR CHANGES AS WE GO THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS WILL HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PROB30
GROUPS ARE IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CRITERIA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START IMPROVING BACK TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING. WIND SHIFTS
GREATER THAN 30 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
WINDS WILL BE BENIGN, BUT MODERATE (10-15KTS) AND SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MID-
WEEK WILL BE EASTERLY AND MODERATE (10-15KTS). MSW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 64 78 54 78 / 80 60 0 0
BTR 66 81 57 80 / 70 70 0 0
ASD 66 81 57 82 / 70 80 10 0
MSY 70 81 65 80 / 70 80 10 0
GPT 69 81 59 80 / 70 90 20 0
PQL 66 82 57 82 / 70 90 30 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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