491
FXUS64 KLIX 030516
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1216 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSING ON TRACK OR PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO
QUICKER. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS, BUT A FEW CELLS OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND
SHOWING SOME ROTATION. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT WHERE
REPEAT CONVECTION OCCURS. CURRENT TIMING OF STORMS HAS MAIN LINE
FROM THE ALABAMA BORDER TO PLAQUEMINES PARISH PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SATURDAY. SOME CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT
BEYOND MID-MORNING OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE A LARGE THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
TONIGHT, A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY RELATING TO THE STRENGTH OF
THIS LINE. BUT GENERALLY, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10/12.
WE ARE OUTLOOKED IN AN ENHANCED TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
BY SPC. GUSTY WINDS (60+MPH) WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERNMOST
AREAS LIKE SW MS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN LOCATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE EVENING THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
INDICATED. GENERALLY, THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING OUR
AREA BY AROUND 7-8PM AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ENTIRELY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY,
BUT THESE STORMS WOULD NOT BE SEVERE AT THAT POINT AND WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN ANY RISK AREA FOR SATURDAY.
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ONCE THESE STORMS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY. MSW
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT, LOOKING AT THE MODELS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. IT IS A LITTLE FAR OUT FOR DETAILS,
BUT STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING FOR CHANGES AS WE GO THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MSW
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MAIN THREAT OF TSRA WILL BE IN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES. POSSIBLE TO SEE A GUST TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER WITH MAIN LINE. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT BEYOND MID MORNING, AND
WILL CARRY PROB30 UNTIL MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR BEYOND THAT POINT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
WINDS WILL BE BENIGN, BUT MODERATE (10-15KTS) AND SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS MONDAY THROUGH MID-
WEEK WILL BE EASTERLY AND MODERATE (10-15KTS). MSW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 54 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 57 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 57 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 65 80 65 83 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 59 80 59 81 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 57 82 55 83 / 20 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...MSW
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