794
FXUS64 KLIX 031159 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
659 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION LAST EVENING HAS FINALLY MOVED MOSTLY OFFSHORE
WITH THE REMAINING LANDBASED ZONES COLD POOLED, IF YOU WILL. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT RESIDES OVER THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS VERY DIFFUSE DUE TO IMPACTS OF THE CONVECTION AND
COLD POOL. EVENTUALLY, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN UP AND
FINALLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE PARENT TROUGH GIVES IT A NUDGE EAST.
PRIOR TO THIS, THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY TIME ALONG WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AROUND LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY EAST OF THE I55 CORRIDOR. TAKING A QUICK
LOOK AT PARAMETERS, CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1000-1500
J?KG. ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO TRY TO INDICATED AN INVERTED "V"
WITH A BIT TAD DRIER SURFACE AIR. DCAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR A
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND FINALLY H5 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM -12C TO -15C RESPECTIVELY LEADING TO A POTENTIAL
HAIL THREAT. WITH THOSE PARAMETERS IN PLACE AND A SLOWER FRONTAL
EVOLUTION, SPC DID BRING THE MARGINAL THAT STOPPED AT THE MS/AL
BORDER ON SWODY2 BACK WEST ON THE NEW SWODY1 TO THE I55 CORRIDOR.
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATER TODAY, A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST.
THE SOUTHSHORE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WITH THE SUN ANGLE GETTING HIGHER WILL STILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S (DESPITE THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES) WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
GOING INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK, THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN TWO VERY
WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOWS (BLOCKY PATTERN) OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE OTHER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MEANS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. IN TIME BY
TUESDAY, THE WESTERN ULL WILL SEND A STRONG IMPULSE AROUND ITS
BASE AND NORTH AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, WHICH WILL FINALLY KICK
THE EASTERN ULL DOWNSTREAM. AS THIS OCCURS THE REGION GOES UNDER
A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WESTERN ULL WILL BEGIN
TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL HELP LIFT A SURFACE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THEN
STALL IT OVER CENTRAL LA THROUGH CENTRAL AL UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THE ULL SITS OVER
THE PLAINS, IMPULSES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE. THESE
SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONSENSUS QPF DATA SHOW
GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME AND WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0", THINK LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS LEADING TO POTENTIAL HYDRO
CONCERNS FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROBS, SRH
VALUES ARE THERE WITH SHEAR INCREASING. CAPE VALUES WILL ALSO
INCREASE, BUT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THESE MAY BE LIMITED A BIT
DUE TO WEAKENED SURFACE HEATING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO
OUR REGION FROM THE PLAINS. CONTINUED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST RIGHT INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE ULL DRIFTS
SOUTH WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER YET
AGAIN, BUT THIS TIME MOSTLY A HAIL CONCERN WITH UPPER LEVELS
COOLING DRASTICALLY. ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. THAT SAID, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM, SPECIALLY TOWARD THE END
AS THE ULL SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
END UP BEING THE PRODUCT OF THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST. LESS CLOUDS
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS AND THEN MORE OF A CONVECTIVE RISK. MORE
CLOUDS MUCH COOLER, WHICH COULD BE A VERY LARGE RANGE...SAY 80 VS
65 DEPENDING ON CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED THE
CONSENSUS FOR NOW, BUT THE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK MAY
VERY WELL BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR
TERMINALS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. BRIEF REDUCTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH VIS/CIG CATEGORIES. WINDS MAY ALSO BE
GUSTY IN AND AROUND CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, A GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW TO A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY, GOING INTO THE
NEW WORKWEEK SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION WHILE REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE DUE INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY INCREASE MARINE
WINDS A BIT WITH CAUTIONARY HEADLINES POSSIBLE. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 77 53 77 52 / 70 0 0 0
BTR 80 56 79 54 / 60 0 0 0
ASD 80 56 80 55 / 70 0 0 0
MSY 80 64 80 64 / 70 0 0 0
GPT 80 59 80 58 / 80 10 0 0
PQL 81 56 81 54 / 80 30 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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