283
FXUS64 KLIX 032005
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY
OVERALL WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, SO ENJOY THE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. MSW
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND LINGERS, REFIRING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF THE
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE BEST FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ARE OCCURRING AROUND THIS TIME. THIS SEVERE WEATHER
RISK LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST AREAS. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT DETAILS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE BIGGEST SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN AT THIS POINT, BUT THAT COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
ANOTHER BIG CONCERN LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
WILL FIRE UP AROUND THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT DIFFERENT
POINTS. GENERALLY, 4-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR OUR
AREA AND WPC HAS US OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
PW VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2-2.1 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND APPROACHING
THE MAX DAILY. AS A RESULT, THE RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES, MOST LIKELY. WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN IF THE CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA,
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL PERSIST. IT IS STILL REALLY FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE
ROUNDS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING FURTHER AS WE GET
TOWARD MID WEEK. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. GPT WILL HAVE TEMPORARY PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EARLY EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE (10-15KTS) AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AND MODERATE (10-15KTS). SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. MSW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 53 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 56 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 56 80 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 64 80 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 59 80 58 80 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 56 81 54 82 / 20 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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