721
FXUS64 KLIX 040220
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
920 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR SOUTHWEST PASS IN
LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH, PRECIPITATION HAS DEPARTED SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI FOR THE NIGHT. ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEPART OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA, DON'T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, FOG AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOOKS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES AND LOW
HUMIDITY. UPDATED ZFPLIX HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY
OVERALL WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, SO ENJOY THE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. MSW
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND LINGERS, REFIRING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF THE
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE BEST FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ARE OCCURRING AROUND THIS TIME. THIS SEVERE WEATHER
RISK LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST AREAS. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT DETAILS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE BIGGEST SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN AT THIS POINT, BUT THAT COULD
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
ANOTHER BIG CONCERN LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
WILL FIRE UP AROUND THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT DIFFERENT
POINTS. GENERALLY, 4-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR OUR
AREA AND WPC HAS US OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
PW VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2-2.1 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND APPROACHING
THE MAX DAILY. AS A RESULT, THE RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES, MOST LIKELY. WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN IF THE CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA,
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL PERSIST. IT IS STILL REALLY FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE
ROUNDS. IT WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING FURTHER AS WE GET
TOWARD MID WEEK. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WINDS AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS HAVE SHIFTED TO A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH THIS HASN'T HAPPENED YET AT KPQL, IT SHOULD IN
THE NEXT HOUR. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD END ANY
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF TSRA AT A TERMINAL. STILL SOME CEILINGS AT
OR ABOVE FL035, BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. BEYOND THAT POINT,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE (10-15KTS) AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AND MODERATE (10-15KTS). SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. MSW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 53 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 56 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 56 80 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 64 80 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 59 80 58 80 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 56 81 54 82 / 20 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...MSW
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