735
FXUS64 KLIX 040848
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AND NOW A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION. FOR EARLY MAY THE
CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY "FRESH" WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 50S HERE AT ASD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEAR/SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW, THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, HOWEVER,
WITH THE STRONGER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR, SURFACE HEATING
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO WARM US INTO THE UPPER 70S AND INTO THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WE WILL COOL
EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT AGAIN WITH MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHSHORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AFTER A RATHER "QUIET" SHORT TERM, THINGS QUICKLY EVOLVE TO A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CWFA. THE REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN TWO ULLS, ONE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EVENTUALLY, AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND
THE WESTERN ULL WILL KICK THE EASTERN ULL DOWNSTREAM. AT THE SAME
TIME, THIS FEATURE WILL HELP BRING THE OLD COLD FRONT THAT STALLS
OVER THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FRONT TO STALL BETWEEN THE I10 AND I20 CORRIDORS. EVENTUALLY,
ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AS THE ULL BEGINS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE
AND THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL/CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. AS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION,
INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE (ALBEIT SOMEWHAT MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE, SO AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE THERE. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE QUALITY. PWATS INCREASE TO 2.0"+ ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWFA. CONSENSUS QPF VALUES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS HAVE INCREASE A
GOOD BIT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I10/12 CORRIDOR. WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, HYDRO ISSUES ARE
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD. FLASH FLOODING
AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY SOME RIVER FLOOD ISSUES AFTER SEVERAL
ROUNDS.
GOING INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND, THE ULL DROPS SOUTHWARD. GLOBALS ARE
ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING, AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS IS A BIT
CONCERNING AS THE UPPER LEVELS COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. IN ADDITION TO
AGGRAVATING ANY POTENTIAL ONGOING HYDRO CONCERNS, A LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND GOING INTO THE START OF THE
LONG TERM AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES TO A MORE
RETURN FLOW. THE ONLY TEMPERATURE CONCERN COMES FROM THE ULL,
CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION OR CLOUD DEBRIS...WHICH WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WITH LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A CHALLENGE. IMPLICATIONS OF
CLOUDINESS/PRECIP WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE IN WARMING INTO THE
80S VS STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S...SO A WIDE RANGE IS
STILL POSSIBLE. FURTHERMORE, IF WE DO GET BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS,
THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING UNDER A VERY COOL MID/UPPER LEVELS
WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ALL FORECAST TERMINALS CURRENTLY VFR AND LIKELY TO REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE INDICATES THERE ARE A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND FL050, BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, EVEN THOSE
SHOULD DEPART THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NBM PROBABILITIES
OF IFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING ARE TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AT KMCB. (RW)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EASTWARD AS WE START THE NEW WORKWEEK, WHICH WILL TRANSITION WINDS
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MIDWEEK. CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MID TO LATE
WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 76 51 80 59 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 79 54 82 65 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 79 54 82 63 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 79 63 82 70 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 79 57 80 65 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 80 53 81 60 / 0 0 0 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
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