398
FXUS64 KLIX 042022
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OVERALL
WITH MILD CONDITIONS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
PATTERN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING! MSW
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REFIRES ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIODICALLY. A LLJ WILL ALSO BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A LARGE CONCERN FOR THE FLASH FLOODING RISK. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL PRESENT ISSUES.
CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2", WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THERE IS DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER PROPERTIES IN
PLACE, DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, LOW SHEAR, SKINNY CAPE, AND A
LLJ TO SUPPORT. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WE ARE
OUTLOOKED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INCLUDING SW MS, THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PARISHES, AND THE BATON
ROUGE METRO AREA. WE ARE OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
AND A MARGINAL RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY, 5-7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, BUT MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAINLY THE THREATS WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS THREAT. WE
ARE NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS
THINGS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THINGS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT, BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS VERY CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKS OVER THE
AREA, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AS PROLIFIC AS THE WORKWEEK.
REGARDLESS, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 1-2 INCHES. THESE STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY FOR LARGE
HAIL TO FORM, BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT. WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING
THIS AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND MODERATE (10-15KTS) THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY MODERATE (10-15KTS) WINDS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA MID WEEK. INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
EASTERLY MODERATE TO STRONG (15-20KTS) WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND MODERATE
(10-15KTS). MSW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 50 80 59 79 / 0 0 10 70
BTR 54 83 64 82 / 0 0 20 80
ASD 54 82 62 82 / 0 0 10 60
MSY 63 81 69 83 / 0 0 20 60
GPT 57 80 65 80 / 0 0 10 40
PQL 52 82 59 82 / 0 0 10 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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