521
FXUS64 KLIX 051720
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
ONE MORE VERY NICE DAY COMING UP TODAY. THEN THE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITTING ABOUT 70 MILES OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO BEND BACK
TOWARD THE AREA AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE H3 TROUGH AND LOW OVER SOUTHERN CAL INCHING
EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF MOVES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT, IT WILL ORIENT ITSELF MORE PERPENDICULAR TO
THE UPPER AND MID FLOW. THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP CONNECT THE SFC
VARIABLES TO THIS FLOW ALLOWING SH/TS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND
OVER THIS BOUNDARY TUE MORNING. THE H3 TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INCHING
EASTWARD WHILE THROWING DISTURBANCES EAST AS WELL CAUSING AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL STARTING TUE. THE RAIN WILL COME IN
HEAVY AND LIGHT PERIODS AS THESE DISTURBANCES ENTER AND EXIT. ONE OF
THESE HEAVY RAIN PERIODS LOOK TO BE TUE NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE FROM TIME TO TIME. BUT THIS WILL
NOT BE THE MAIN THEME HERE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
WED SHOULD BE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS
AROUND AND MAYBE A STORM BUT IT WILL LET THINGS DRAIN A BIT BEFORE
THE NEXT HEAVY RAINFALL SETS IN FOR THU. THIS ONE WILL SET IN ALMOST
LIKE THE FIRST COMING IN FROM THE WEST THU MORNING LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FRI WILL BE ANOTHER REPRIEVE AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT WILL
SEE MORE STORMS BUT THIS TIME COMING IN WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. THIS RAIN DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS HEAVY BUT WITH SATURATED
GROUNDS, IT STILL COULD BE AN ISSUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
ADVERTISED TO MOVE IN CLEARING ALL THIS MESS OUT BY SAT MORNING AND
BRING SOME VERY NICE CONDITIONS SO WE CAN DRY OUT. THE HIGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH IS LOCATED IN NW CANADA A THE MOMENT. THIS HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY MIGRATE SW TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THEN SOUTH TO
OUR AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE H3 TROUGH MOVES EAST. THIS IS A
WAYS OUT IN TIME SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS CHANGES PRE-
WEEKEND. BUT IT IS VERY NORMAL TO SEE SOMETHING COME IN TO TURN THE
SPIGOT OFF AFTER A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
RAINFALL. TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR CONVECTION START TO
INCREASE, SOME TIMING SPECIFICS LIKELY TO COME WITH THE NEXT
PACKAGE LATER THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME VIS ISSUES AT SOME TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AT AROUND
10KT. EAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO 15-20KT TUESDAY AND SHIFT TO A
SE DIRECTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE BY WED BACK TO AROUND 10KT.
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS, SOME SEVERE, MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
WED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
RAPIDLY. EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHERLY, NUMEROUS
STORMS AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DEFINITELY SHIFT WIND
DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRI OR OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 76 66 79 / 20 80 90 90
BTR 64 79 69 81 / 30 80 90 90
ASD 63 79 69 82 / 20 50 80 90
MSY 69 81 72 81 / 20 60 70 90
GPT 64 80 69 81 / 20 40 70 80
PQL 59 81 67 82 / 10 30 60 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...TE
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