783
FXUS64 KLIX 240502
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1202 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS IS PRODUCING WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR
INTERSTATE 20. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM LOCALIZED
COOLING DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CREEP A BIT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE PRETTY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AROUND SUNSET, AND THEN
RE-INITIATE BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, BUT CERTAINLY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WATCH.
FOR THE VERY LIMITED AREAS THAT GET STUCK UNDER ONE OF THESE
STORMS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FUNCTION OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS, WITH ANY AREAS NOT RECEIVING STORMS PRIOR TO 20-21Z
TOPPING OUT AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR SOUTHWARD THE SHORTWAVES
SUPPRESS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE, THUS CARRYING HIGHER POPS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 COULD STAY DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
EVERYONE WILL GET IN ON THE FUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE HIGHER POPS/CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW, GENERALLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z. NOT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS WILL SEE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, AND THE HIGHEST
PROBABILTIES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. THIS INCLUDES BTR, HDC, AND
MCB. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THESE
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, LOWER
CEILINGS, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR VISIBILTIIES DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS IN THE
AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. PG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
CONVECTION MAY HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS NEAR KHDC/KHUM/KBTR
AND POTENTIALLY REACHING KMCB. DIRECT IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE IFR
VISIBILITIES, MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN SINCE EARLIER DISCUSSION. HAVE ADDED PROB30 FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED
TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT, ONCE IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT
WHERE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCING LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THREATS
WILL BE GREATER OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS (LAKES AND SOUNDS),
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROLONGED PERIODS
OF WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 70 90 71 92 / 20 40 20 30
BTR 73 92 74 92 / 30 30 10 30
ASD 73 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 20
MSY 77 91 77 92 / 10 20 10 20
GPT 76 88 74 88 / 0 20 10 10
PQL 73 90 72 89 / 0 10 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
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