277
FXUS64 KLIX 242015
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED FROM TEXAS TO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MONTANA TO NEAR LOS ANGELES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE EASTERN
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS NEAR INTERSTATE 20 WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THAT FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. LOCALLY, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE PROVIDING BRIEF COOLING IN A FEW AREAS.
MOST AREAS WERE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S, BUT
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF ON MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
ISN'T LIKELY TO MAKE MUCH, IF ANY, FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER AND
AROUND THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT THAT THE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA COULD CONCEIVABLY REACH THE LOCAL AREA IF THEY BECOME
COLD POOL DOMINATED AS NOTED BY A FEW MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THAT'S NOT CURRENTLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE FORECAST, BUT WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO LOOK A LOT LIKE TODAY
WEATHER-WISE, INCLUDING TEMPERATURES, WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, RIDGING BECOMES
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY DRIER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING
THE DIURNALLY FAVORED HOURS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS, AND
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
SEVERE STORMS OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREN'T CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION, POTENTIALLY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER (COMPARATIVELY,
FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE) WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DRIVEN BY THE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON A PARTICULAR DAY. THERE ARE NO STRONG
TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY, SO ACCEPTED THE NBM TEMPERATURE VALUES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. ISOLATED TSRA
WERE IN THE VICINITY OF KMSY/KNEW/KASD/KGPT. POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS, WHICH WOULD BE MVFR CEILINGS, IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND POTENTIAL FOR RATHER GUSTY WINDS. MOST TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z. COULD SEE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY, BUT DON'T EXPECT THEM TO BE WIDESPREAD. BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING AS CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS, BUT MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS WILL GENERALLY RULE MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCING LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS. THREATS WILL BE GREATER OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS (LAKES AND
SOUNDS), ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS. THE ONLY OTHER THING OF
MENTION IS THAT WE ARE BEGINNING TO GET MORE AND MORE INTO THE
SUMMER SETUP SO WE WILL SEE THAT NOCTURNAL JET BEGIN TO SET UP
MOST NIGHTS EAST OF THE MS DELTA. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THAT SMALL
AREA AROUND BRETON AND CHANDELUER SOUNDS AND SOUTH OF MS SOUND
WILL LIKELY SEE A BUMP IN WINDS OF 3-5 KTS COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 71 91 72 90 / 20 30 10 50
BTR 74 92 75 92 / 10 30 0 40
ASD 73 91 73 90 / 10 20 0 20
MSY 76 91 77 92 / 10 20 0 20
GPT 75 88 75 87 / 10 10 10 20
PQL 72 89 72 89 / 10 10 0 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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