046
FXUS64 KLIX 250505
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 746 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
ANALYSIS OF THE THETA E GRADIENT AND THE ONGOING TRAJECTORY OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INTO PORTIONS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING PEARL RIVER COUNTY
AND HARRISON AND JACKSON COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES, AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LINE IS DECREASING RAPIDLY. HOWEVER, GUSTY
WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A CONCERN AS
THE LINE MOVES INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LINE, HAVE INCREASED
POP FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 10 PM. PG
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED FROM TEXAS TO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MONTANA TO NEAR LOS ANGELES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE EASTERN
GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS NEAR INTERSTATE 20 WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THAT FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. LOCALLY, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE PROVIDING BRIEF COOLING IN A FEW AREAS.
MOST AREAS WERE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S, BUT
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF ON MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
ISN'T LIKELY TO MAKE MUCH, IF ANY, FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER AND
AROUND THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT THAT THE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA COULD CONCEIVABLY REACH THE LOCAL AREA IF THEY BECOME
COLD POOL DOMINATED AS NOTED BY A FEW MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THAT'S NOT CURRENTLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE FORECAST, BUT WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO LOOK A LOT LIKE TODAY
WEATHER-WISE, INCLUDING TEMPERATURES, WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, RIDGING BECOMES
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY DRIER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING
THE DIURNALLY FAVORED HOURS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS, AND
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
SEVERE STORMS OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREN'T CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION, POTENTIALLY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER (COMPARATIVELY,
FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE) WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DRIVEN BY THE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON A PARTICULAR DAY. THERE ARE NO STRONG
TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY, SO ACCEPTED THE NBM TEMPERATURE VALUES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MORE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM RAINFALL THIS EVENING MAY HELP
PRODUCE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT MCB BETWEEN
11Z AND 13Z. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO REFLECT THE INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TERMINAL. OTHERWISE,
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 16Z. AFTER 16Z, ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG SEABREEZE AND
LAKEBREEZE BOUNDARIES PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, GUSTY WINDS, AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500
AND 2500 FEET. GPT, NEW, MSY, AND ASD WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY
THIS INITIAL CONVECTION. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION
MOVE MORE INLAND, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT HDC, BTR, AND MCB BY 20Z WITH SIMILAR OVERALL IMPACTS.
THERE MAY ALSO BE ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVES
INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM MAKING IT TO
THE COAST IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME. IF IT DOES MAKE IT HERE, ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT MCB AND GPT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. PG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KMSY AND KNEW HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KMCB THAT COULD REACH
KMCB BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THAT COULD PRODUCE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. CURRENT
TRAJECTORIES WOULD INDICATE THESE STORMS WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
KHDC AND KASD, AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KGPT.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT KMCB PRIOR TO SUNRISE,
MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS
BETWEEN 14Z-17Z AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING.
HAVE LIMITED PROB30 MENTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO KBTR AND KMCB,
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED, BUT
THREAT IS NON-ZERO AT REMAINING TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS WILL GENERALLY RULE MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCING LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS. THREATS WILL BE GREATER OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS (LAKES AND
SOUNDS), ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS. THE ONLY OTHER THING OF
MENTION IS THAT WE ARE BEGINNING TO GET MORE AND MORE INTO THE
SUMMER SETUP SO WE WILL SEE THAT NOCTURNAL JET BEGIN TO SET UP
MOST NIGHTS EAST OF THE MS DELTA. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THAT SMALL
AREA AROUND BRETON AND CHANDELEUR SOUNDS AND SOUTH OF MS SOUND
WILL LIKELY SEE A BUMP IN WINDS OF 3-5 KTS COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 72 90 73 / 30 40 50 30
BTR 92 75 92 76 / 30 30 40 20
ASD 91 73 90 74 / 20 20 20 10
MSY 91 77 92 78 / 20 20 20 10
GPT 88 75 87 77 / 20 20 20 10
PQL 89 72 89 74 / 20 30 20 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
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