207
FXUS64 KLIX 251140
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
YESTERDAY PLAYED OUT PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN THE CAMS APPEAR TO REALLY BE STRUGGLING WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE MCS'S THIS TIME OF THE YEAR GIVEN THE PATTERN
WE ARE CURRENTLY IN (WHICH SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER 36 HRS). AND
THAT IS GOING TO MAKE THE FORECAST RATHER DIFFICULT FOR THE NEXT 36
HRS AS 2 IF NOT POSSIBLY 3 MCS'S DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MORE ON THOSE IN A BIT. OUTSIDE
OF THE MCS WE DID SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN NOT QUITE THE
COVERAGE WE SAW ON FRIDAY BUT MORE THAN WHAT MANY OF THE MDLS
ANTICIPATED. WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT TODAY, WELL NOT MUCH BECAUSE
WE WILL BE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR
WEST SLOWLY SLIDES EAST TODAY HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED DUE TO A S/W DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS
THE HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES COMING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND WEST TX.
WE STILL HAVE THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF RIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NNW INTO EASTERN TX. THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE S/W MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. THIS WOULD
TYPICALLY BE A NEGATIVE FOR CONVECTION AND IT STILL LIKELY WILL
HINDER CONVECTION SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SUPPRESSION ALOFT WILL BE
WEAKENING LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE RIDGE PROBABLY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION INITIALLY DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE/SEA BREEZE
FORCING WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP TO GET CONVECTION TO INITIATE. AFTER
THAT ONCE AGAIN WITH THE WEAK SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WIND OUTFLOW AND
OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL PLAY THE KEY ROLE IN CONVECTION
PROPAGATION. CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN LIKELY INITIATES AROUND THE LAKE
POSSIBLY OVER COASTAL MS. CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY PROPAGATE
NORTHWEST SLOWLY AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY EVENING.
NOW THE FOCUS TRANSITIONS TO THE MCS.
ONE MCS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEASTERN OK AND THAT WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR AREA AS IT SHOULD SURGE MORE TO THE ESE OVER
NORTHERN AR AND INTO TN AND NORTHERN MS. BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THAT MCS WILL PROBABLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MDLS SUGGESTING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COULD LIGHT UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR AND
STRETCH POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS NORTHERN MS OR AS FAR WEST AS
SOUTHEASTERN OK. THAT MCS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ONCE A
STRONGER COLD POOL DEVELOPS WITH IT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. IF THE COLD POOL DOESN'T SURGE TOO FAR OUT AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS ENTER SOUTHWESTERN MS AND
ADJACENT FL PARISHES RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT SAID THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING QUITE RAPIDLY SO NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE WITH IT IN OUR CWA IF IT EVEN
GETS HERE BUT GIVEN HOW THESE THINGS HAVE PLAYED OUT RECENTLY I AM
LEANING MORE TOWARDS A WEAK LINE OF STORMS GETTING INTO OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN JUST THE FIRST 2 ROWS OF
COUNTIES/PARISHES.
THE NEXT PROBLEM THOUGH IS ANOTHER MCS WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL TX AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT OTHER LINE IS GETTING
HERE. WHAT COULD HAPPEN IS THAT THE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OUR DECAYING LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO OUR
AREA BUT IT WILL HANG BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN TX.
THE NEW MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN TX IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND WILL LIKELY GENERATE A STRONG COLD
POOL WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO QUICKLY SURGE EAST. THE INITIAL MCS MAY
WEAKEN POSSIBLY EVEN DISSIPATE BUT ITS OUTFLOW/COLD POOL WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL TX. THE
ENVIRONMENT IN THAT AREA WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL THEN CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER COMPLEX DURING THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING HOURS ON MEMORIAL DAY. WITH OUR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID
OUT FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SELA THAT WILL BASICALLY PROVIDE A
CORRIDOR FOR THIS COMPLEX TO SURGE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEST/SOUTHWEST LA AND INTO SELA/SOUTHWESTERN MS. IF THAT SCENARIO
PLAYS OUT WE WOULD SEE IT MOVE IN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT
AS MENTIONED THE CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH TIMING AND DEPTH OF THESE
MCS'S AND WITH THAT IT WOULDN'T BE A COMPLETE SURPRISE OF THAT
COMPLEX GOT HERE A LITTLE FASTER THAN 23/00Z MONDAY EVENING. THE ONE
BIGGER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE INITIAL MCS DOES NOT DISSIPATE.
AGAIN WE WILL HAVE THAT OLD LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR IT TO JUST
RIDE STRAIGHT ON DOWN TO OUR AREA. IF IT MAINTAINS IT WILL LIKELY RE-
INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SURGE
SOUTHEAST AND COULD END UP MOVING INTO THE AREA ABOUT 3-6 HOURS
EARLIER.
CURRENTLY SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
MS FOR MONDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SOUTH ESPECIALLY IF THE
MCS IS A LITTLE FASTER. OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT THAT
CONCERNING BUT WE WILL BE UNSTABLE AND IF THAT MCS DOES MAKE IT HERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE
AN ENHANCED RISK FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL.
ONE LAST THING TO MENTION ABOUT TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, LIKE WAS
BROUGHT UP LAST NIGHT, IF YOU ARE OUT AND ATTENDING ANY OUTDOOR
SERVICES OR FUNCTIONS PLEASE REMEMBER TO HYDRATE. ITS NOT TERRIBLE
OUT THERE BUT ABSENT THUNDERSTORMS THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100 TODAY AND DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF STORMS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
TOMORROW. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
OVERALL THE FOCUS WAS ON THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ACTIVE. LUCKILY MODELS HAVE
NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY DEVIATIONS TO THE NBM
WERE MADE IN THE FORECAST. THE ONE REAL DIFFERENCE IS THE ECMWF IS
FOR SOME REASON SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF RAIN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. NOTHING ELSE WAS NECESSARILY SUGGESTING THAT BUT MAY
BE A TREND TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AS WE HAVE BEEN MENTIONING THE PATTERN FINALLY SHIFTS. THE FLAT
RIDGE IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS MEXICO, THE GULF AND INTO THE
BAHAMAS WHILE THE L/W TROUGH HAS A VERY POSITIVE TILT FROM
PRACTICALLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN
US COAST. THIS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING SPECIFIC
IMPULSES IS NOT FEASIBLE AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS PROBABLY SPACED APART BY 18-24 HOURS.
LUCKILY THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AT RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD LVLS, STILL AROUND 75% MOST OF THE TIME. THAT AND EVERYTHING
EACH ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE. SO EVEN WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN IT DOESN'T LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A HUGE RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING. THAT SAID AS ALWAYS WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
AS IT ONLY TAKE ONE BATCH OF STORMS TO NOT COOPERATE AND CAUSE
PROBLEMS. /CAB/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A FEW TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY OR HAVE HAD SOME IMPACTS FROM
LOWERED CIGS AND/OR REDUCED VSBYS. BY 14/15Z ANY TERMINAL DEALING
WITH IMPACTS SHOULD BE BAKC IN VFR STATUS UNTIL POSSIBLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. TERMINALS THAT WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION
FIRST ARE AROUND THE TIDAL LAKES MSY, HDC, AND ASD. NEW MAY LUCK
OUT AS CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE FARTEHR AWAY FROM THAT
TERMINAL. GPT MAY ALSO BE JUST OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION IMPACTS
AS STORMS MAY DEVELOP JUST A TAD TOO FAR NORTH. BTR AND MCB WILL
PROBABLY SEE IMPACTS FROM STORMS AS WELL BUT IT WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND MCB COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AS A
DECAYING MCS COULD PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
LIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCING
LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THREATS WILL BE GREATER OVER THE
PROTECTED WATERS (LAKES AND SOUNDS), ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY
ONWARD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF WINDS ABOVE 15
KNOTS. THE ONLY OTHER THING OF MENTION IS THAT WE ARE BEGINNING TO
GET MORE AND MORE INTO THE SUMMER SETUP SO WE WILL SEE THAT
NOCTURNAL JET BEGIN TO SET UP MOST NIGHTS EAST OF THE MS DELTA.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THAT SMALL AREA AROUND BRETON AND CHANDELEUR
SOUNDS AND SOUTH OF MS SOUND WILL LIKELY SEE A BUMP IN WINDS OF
3-5 KTS COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 71 90 72 / 40 30 50 20
BTR 92 74 92 75 / 40 20 30 20
ASD 91 73 90 74 / 20 10 30 10
MSY 92 77 91 78 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 89 75 87 77 / 20 20 20 10
PQL 89 72 89 74 / 20 10 20 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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