081
FXUS64 KLIX 260507
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1207 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND EAST TEXAS
NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGHING EXTENDED
FROM MONTANA TO NEAR LAS VEGAS. A MCS WAS NOTED NEAR INTERSTATE
40. LOCALLY, WHAT CONVECTION THERE HAS BEEN WAS CONSIDERABLY
LATER DEVELOPING THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. AWAY FROM THE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY AROUND 90
DEGREES, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WERE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO LAKE ERIE BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THAT FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 RANGE TODAY AND MONDAY
WILL INCREASE TO 1.7 TO 1.9 BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY
TUESDAY. MESOSCALE MODELING SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM NO CONVECTION TO
A MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
POPS GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT
THE 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTION SHOWS. IF STORMS DO REACH THE
AREA, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH
WIND BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK, PRODUCING A
MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MOST LIKELY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY DIGS DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA INTO THE GULF. POPS WILL BE LIKELY OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, IF CURRENT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS PAN OUT,
CURRENT FORECAST POPS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE CONSIDERABLY TOO HIGH. WE
WON'T BE ABLE TO RULE OUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY, BUT THOSE SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION. SLIGHTLY GREATER
CONCERN WILL BE THE EVENTUAL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA WITH THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF ROUNDS OF
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE TO SEE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
BUT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN RATHER DRY FOR THE LAST COUPLE
WEEKS.
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND/OR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AREAS
RECEIVING SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON, COULD TOP OUT AROUND
90 DEGREES, WITH CLOUDIER AREAS REMAINING IN THE MID 80S, AND
MAYBE NOT EVEN THAT WARM. OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 70S.
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S, BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEKEND COULD ACTUALLY
TURN OUT TO BE A RATHER COMFORTABLE (FOR EARLY JUNE) WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF
THIS COMPLEX MOVES IN, A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 KNOTS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES MAY
BRIEFLY FALL INTO IFR RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS IS BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z, BUT IT MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 17Z
AT MCB AND BTR AS THE COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OUTSIDE
OF THIS CONVECTIVE THREAT, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS. PG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL IMPACT KMCB FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO REACH KMCB LATE TONIGHT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE,
AND HAVEN'T INCLUDED AT THIS POINT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THE MORE
LIKELY OCCURRENCE THERE AROUND SUNRISE. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS AROUND 14Z. MAIN QUESTION
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS ON MONDAY,
WITH MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL CARRY PROB30 AT KBTR/KHDC/KASD/KGPT AND TEMPO AT KMCB.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINE OPERATIONS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THAT THREAT
SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS (LAKES AND SOUNDS) FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT MORE WIDELY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND
TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS, UNTIL PERHAPS BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN THEN, WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 87 70 85 / 30 60 30 80
BTR 75 89 72 87 / 30 40 30 80
ASD 74 89 72 87 / 20 40 20 70
MSY 78 91 75 88 / 20 30 30 70
GPT 76 88 73 87 / 20 30 30 70
PQL 73 88 72 87 / 20 20 30 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
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