837
FXUS64 KLIX 261140
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
FIRST AND FOREMOST WE HERE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW
ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE WISH YOU A VERY MEMORABLE MEMORIAL DAY. A
HUGE HEARTFELT THANKS TO THOSE AND THEIR FAMILY MEMBERS WHO GAVE
THE ULTIMATE SACRIFICE FOR OUR COUNTRY.
NOW TO THE WEATHER, THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WORK INTO THE AREA. AT 7Z A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FROM NORTH OF THE
MS COAST TO JUST SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT AND NORTH OF DALLAS. AS
EXPECTED ANOTHER MCS WAS WELL UNDERWAY BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TX. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
SOUTHWEST ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THAT LINE THAT WAS JUST
MENTIONED.
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAD BEEN WEST OF THE REGION MOVED EAST YESTERDAY
BUT IS ALREADY SUPPRESSED WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
REALLY BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS MEXICO THE GULF AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HONESTLY THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT REALLY
HINGES ON THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS LAST NIGHT TO OUR NORTH. THAT
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO COASTAL MS THROUGH THE FL PARISHES
AND IS HUNG UP BACK TO NORTHWEST LA. CONVECTION IS REALLY BEGINNING
TO REFIRE ALONG IT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL LA WHILE THERE ARE MORE
THAN JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ALONG IT FROM COVINGTON TO MOBILE.
THIS IS MORE THAN WHAT MOST MODELS HAVE INDICATED AND MAKES ME THINK
WE MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION ALONG IT AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
THAT SAID EYES ARE REALLY FOCUSED ON THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION
THAT PASSED THROUGH DALLAS. THE THETA E RIDGE IS STILL WELL AHEAD OF
THIS MCS AND LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE LL JET
PUMPING INTO NORTHEAST TX. BOTH OF THESE SUGGEST THE MCS WILL NOT
WEAKEN AND LIKELY STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH ESE
TOWARDS PALESTINE AND NACOGDOCHES TX. THERE IS A LOT OF UNTAPPED
ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF IT AS WELL AND THE SBCAPE RIDGE ACTUALLY IS
TILTED TO THE SSE ACROSS EAST TX AND TOWARDS THE SABINE RIVER. ONCE
IT APPROACHES THE LA/TX BORDER IT IS A LITTLE MORE OF A QUESTION OF
HOW INTENSE IT REMAINS. BY THAT TIME THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT
COLD POOL DEVELOPED SO THE QUESTION IS DOES THE COLD POOL JUST START
TO OUTRUN THE CONVECTION OR CAN THE CONVECTION KEEP UP WITH THE COLD
POOL. MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW THE COLD POOL BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE
CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER IT PASSES THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR AND THEN
APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND 17/18Z. THEY
THEN SHOW A MOSTLY BROKEN AND WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION SURGING
ESE THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MORE INTENSE STORMS
TRYING TO REFIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY EAST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON. I
HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THAT THOUGH. MANY OF THESE MCSS SHOWN BY THE
CAMS PREMATURELY DISSIPATE AND THE OTHER PROBLEM IS THEY ARE SHOWING
THE LINE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION NONE ARE SHOWING ANY
REAL LL DIVERGENCE WHICH WOULD ALSO LEAD TO WEAKENING SO OVERALL NOT
BUYING THIS THING WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IF THERE IS STILL A DECENT LINE OF
CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA THEN I BELIEVE WE WILL STILL SEE
A LINE OF STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. FARTHER SOUTH,
SOUTH OF I-10 IN SELA THE LINE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS
CONVECTION LIKELY SPLITS INTO TWO WELL TO OUR WEST WITH THE NORTHERN
SECTION MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE PROBABLY BREAKING OFF OVER EAST TX AND HEADING
MORE SOUTH OR DISSIPATING AS ANOTHER MCS TO THE WEST OF THAT TAKES
OVER.
MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT LARGE
HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND COOLING
MID LVL TEMPS. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AS WELL. OVERALL NOT A PRONOUNCED SEVERE RISK BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO SUGGEST A FEW WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED TODAY.
LAST THING, AGAIN IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE TODAY AT ANY MEMORIAL DAY
FUNCTIONS/SERVICES FIRST BE COGNIZANT OF STORMS THAT COULD BE
APPROACHING, LIGHTNING IS NOT SOMETHING TO BE TRIFLED WITH AND ITS
JUST NOT WORTH THE RISK. IN ADDITION IT IS APPROACHING SUMMER SO
IT WILL BE WARM, HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S BUT WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, IT WILL FEEL MUCH
WARMER (HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S) AND
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL OPPRESSIVE
ESPECIALLY IN ANY CROWDS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE WATER TO STAY
HYDRATED AND IF BY ANY CHANCE A WAY TO COOL DOWN. STAY SAFE AND
WEATHER AWARE OUT THERE TODAY. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS STILL IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SETUP ALL
WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THEY FINALLY DRIVE NOT ONE
BUT 2 MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/W THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IF NOT PROBABLE AT TIMES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PATTERN WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE BY TUESDAY AND OVER ALMOST THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NOT VERY AMPLIFIED (ALTHOUGH WE ARE
HEADING TOWARDS NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER SO IT ISN'T THAT
UNUSUAL). A VERY FLAT RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL PAC
THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO THE BAHAMAS WILL SET UP WHILE AN ELONGATED
MAYBE YOU CAN CALL IT A L/W TROUGH WILL SETUP FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWEST INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION OR EVER
FARTHER INTO THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY PLACING THE AREA
UNDER WSW FLOW ALOFT AND THUS NUMEROUS IMPULSES SWING THROUGH THE
REGION POSSIBLY EVERY 18-24 HRS APART. PWATS FLUCTUATE FROM NEAR 1.5"
AFTER THE WAVE PASSES TO SURGING ABV 2" JUST PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL.
WITH NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE EACH OF THESE IMPULSES WILL
MOST LIKELY DEVELOP NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT JET SETTING UP FROM TX ENE INTO THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WITH EACH JET
STREAK MOVING THROUGH THERE WILL BE MOMENTS OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE
AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL AID IN THE RAIN EFFICIENCY AND WITH
THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IF NOT EXPECTED. LUCKILY
MOST OF THE TIME CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING ANY SUBSTANTIAL ISSUES BUT IF THERE WAS ONE DAY THAT
COULD BE MORE OF A PROBLEM IT IS LOOKING LIKE WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SETX INTO SRN/CNTRL LA AND SRN MS. THIS WOULD BE THE TIME THAT
CONVECTION HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO TRAIN OVER SOME AREAS AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE TODAY AND TUESDAY COULD
PROVIDE AN ISSUE. STILL AN AWFUL LOT TO GO THROUGH AND LINE UP BUT
IT WILL BE SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER BETWEEN TODAYS STORMS AND TOMORROWS. MDLS ARE
INDICATING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/W WITH THE TUESDAY CONVECTION
LEADING TO POSSIBLY STRONGER LIFT. THIS ALSO LEADS TO A RESPONSE IN
THE LL WITH A STRONGER H85 JET SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST. THAT
SAID THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN. FIRST IS THERE WILL
LIKELY ALREADY BE AN ONGOING STRONG MCS OVERNIGHT MONDAY IN TX. HOW
FAST EAST DOES IT MOVE AND DOES IT MOVE EAST OR WILL IT LIKE MANY
OTHER FOLLOW THE INSTABILITY AND SLIDE JUST OFFSHORE MOVING THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS. EVEN IF IT MOVES MORE TOWARDS US TIMING COULD
ALSO BE A LITTLE TOO EARLY PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL HIGHLY LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS LOWER INSTABILITY. THAT SAID IT WILL BE THE
STRONGEST FORCING WE WILL SEEN YET AND IF THAT MCS DOES MATERIALIZE
THEN IT MAY NOT COMPLETELY MATTER IF WE DONT HEAT UP A LOT. SPC DOES
HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE ON TUESDAY AND THAT LINES UP.
/CAB/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION. LEFT OVER BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED SOUTH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS IS STILL LEADING TO A
FEW STORMS MAINLY AROUND MCB. THAT CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS
AN MCS COMING OUT OF NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX. THIS WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 18/19Z AND THE TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY IMPACTED WOULD BE BTR AND MCB BETWEEN 19-23Z WITH HDC AND
ASD POSSIBLY BEING IMPACTED A FEW HOURS LATER. THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS MAY STAY IN VFR STATUS AS THE MCS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
EXPAND SOUTH OF I-12 AND COULD REMAIN NORTH OF OR DISSIPATE BEFORE
IMPACTING GPT. LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KTS
IS EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND IF THE STORMS MAINTAIN THERE
CURRENTLY INTENSITY WIND GUSTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE MARINE AREAS AS THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR MARINE OPERATIONS REMAINS THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THAT THREAT
SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS (LAKES AND SOUNDS)
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT MORE WIDELY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE EAST PROVIDING A WEAK
GRADIENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND WE COULD
HAVE AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EVEN THEN, WIDESPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 88 72 87 71 / 70 20 80 30
BTR 91 75 90 74 / 50 20 70 30
ASD 90 74 90 73 / 40 10 50 30
MSY 91 78 90 77 / 30 10 40 30
GPT 88 77 87 73 / 30 20 40 30
PQL 89 73 88 71 / 30 20 30 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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