699
FXUS64 KLIX 262019
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER
NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER, AND A THIRD OVER MONTANA. A
NARROW RIDGE WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAKENING SQUALL
LINE WAS MOVING ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BECOMING PARALLEL TO IT, AND WE MAY
NOT SEE MUCH MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL CLEAR SOME
COUNTIES/PARISHES BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 330 PRIOR TO ZFP ISSUANCE. WILL ALSO ADJUST NEAR TERM (0-6
HOUR) POPS PRIOR TO ISSUANCE, SO POPS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT MAY NOT MATCH OFFICIAL ISSUANCE.
THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR CWA, AND AS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER ARRIVES, CONVECTION COULD RETURN TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH IN A MUCH WEAKENED
STATE. THE 18Z HRRR INDICATES A LULL IN CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE REFIRING CONVECTION TOWARD SUNSET
EAST OF INTERSTATE 59. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH WHERE SPC HAS THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2 (TOMORROW). HOWEVER, QUITE THE ARRAY OF
MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS, SO WON'T BACK OFF THE HIGHER POPS FOR
TOMORROW QUITE YET.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS
EACH SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.8 TO 1.9 RANGE, ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ISSUES COULD ARISE.
MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY THE LAST 2 WEEKS, SO WILL NOT
BE GOING WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.
ONCE AGAIN, HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
AVAILABLE SUNSHINE/CONVECTIVE TIMING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHUNTS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. A LITTLE
TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN AREA FOR A FLOOD WATCH, BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WOULD PROBABLY BE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12
CORRIDOR. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WOULDN'T BE A
SURPRISE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN
STORMS DEVELOP, BUT WILL ASSUME MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NOW. HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW NORMALLY
COOLER SPOTS POTENTIALLY FALLING BRIEFLY INTO THE UPPER 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
AT ISSUANCE, ALL TERMINALS WERE VFR, BUT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RAPIDLY APPROACHING KBTR AND KMCB. ALL TERMINALS LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY TSRA PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY AND WILL USE 2-3 HOUR TEMPO
GROUPS WITH BEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING. LOCAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES, MVFR CEILINGS, AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS OR MORE. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY
IFR AT KMCB. CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING WITH BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS. MOST CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTERNOON, SO IN THIS PACKAGE, ONLY CARRYING MENTION AT KMSY WITH
THE LONGER VALID PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MAIN CONCERNS FOR MARINE OPERATIONS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT THREAT SHOULD
BE MAINLY OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, BUT
POTENTIALLY OVER ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM PERIODS OF
CONVECTION, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 87 70 85 / 30 80 30 80
BTR 75 90 74 86 / 30 70 30 90
ASD 75 89 73 86 / 20 50 30 80
MSY 78 91 77 87 / 20 50 30 80
GPT 77 87 74 86 / 30 40 30 70
PQL 74 88 72 88 / 20 30 30 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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