133
FXUS64 KLIX 270514
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER
NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER, AND A THIRD OVER MONTANA. A
NARROW RIDGE WAS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAKENING SQUALL
LINE WAS MOVING ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BECOMING PARALLEL TO IT, AND WE MAY
NOT SEE MUCH MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PUSH. WILL CLEAR SOME
COUNTIES/PARISHES BEHIND THE MAIN LINE FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 330 PRIOR TO ZFP ISSUANCE. WILL ALSO ADJUST NEAR TERM (0-6
HOUR) POPS PRIOR TO ISSUANCE, SO POPS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT MAY NOT MATCH OFFICIAL ISSUANCE.
THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR CWA, AND AS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER ARRIVES, CONVECTION COULD RETURN TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH IN A MUCH WEAKENED
STATE. THE 18Z HRRR INDICATES A LULL IN CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE REFIRING CONVECTION TOWARD SUNSET
EAST OF INTERSTATE 59. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH WHERE SPC HAS THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2 (TOMORROW). HOWEVER, QUITE THE ARRAY OF
MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS, SO WON'T BACK OFF THE HIGHER POPS FOR
TOMORROW QUITE YET.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS
EACH SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.8 TO 1.9 RANGE, ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ISSUES COULD ARISE.
MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY THE LAST 2 WEEKS, SO WILL NOT
BE GOING WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.
ONCE AGAIN, HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
AVAILABLE SUNSHINE/CONVECTIVE TIMING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHUNTS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. A LITTLE
TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN AREA FOR A FLOOD WATCH, BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WOULD PROBABLY BE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12
CORRIDOR. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WOULDN'T BE A
SURPRISE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN
STORMS DEVELOP, BUT WILL ASSUME MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NOW. HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW NORMALLY
COOLER SPOTS POTENTIALLY FALLING BRIEFLY INTO THE UPPER 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MVFR CEILINGS AT GPT AND HUM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH 12Z,
BUT THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 3000 FEET. BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVELY
AIDED FORECAST MODELS AND ANALYSIS OF RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
IN TEXAS, A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. THE LINE WILL SWEEP
THROUGH WEST TO EAST WITH BTR BEING IMPACTED CLOSER TO 15Z AND GPT
CLOSER TO 20Z. A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER 30 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE
THREAT IS REFLECTED BY TEMPO GROUPS. AFTER THE LINE MOVES THROUGH,
A MORE STABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN COOLED AIR LINGERS WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST. PG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOWER CEILINGS TO GPT AND
HUM BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. AFTER 01Z, THE LINE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
TERMINALS AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD. THESE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE NEARLY ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 12Z, BUT MCB COULD SEE SOME LOWER STRATUS FORM AROUND 2000
FEET BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. AFTER 12Z, THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS AT BTR, HDC, AND MCB BETWEEN
12Z AND 16Z. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS THE DIURNAL
MININUM FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE OCCURRING AT THE TIME, BUT PERIODS
OF MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILTIY RESTRICTIONS, LOWER CEILINGS
AROUND 1500 FEET, AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS COULD OCCUR AS THE
LINE IMPACTS THESE TERMINALS. A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AFTER 16Z, BUT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY 21Z NEAR MCB. THE LINE
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE THETA E AXIS TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. THIS NEXT LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING ASD AND GPT BETWEEN 22Z AND 24Z
WITH PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOWER
CEILINGS. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MAIN CONCERNS FOR MARINE OPERATIONS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT THREAT SHOULD
BE MAINLY OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, BUT
POTENTIALLY OVER ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM PERIODS OF
CONVECTION, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 70 85 68 84 / 10 80 30 80
BTR 74 86 70 86 / 30 90 30 70
ASD 73 86 70 86 / 30 80 30 70
MSY 77 87 74 87 / 30 80 30 60
GPT 74 86 71 84 / 30 70 40 60
PQL 72 88 69 86 / 30 70 40 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
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