489
FXUS64 KLIX 271239
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
739 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 738 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
STARTING TO TAKE SOME PARISHES/COUNTIES OUT OF THE SEVERE WATCH
AREA. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST, AREAS BEHIND THE LINE SHOULD BE
CLEAR UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MCS FEATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH BRINGING SEVERE
STORMS FROM THEIR AREA OF INITIATION UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST. FORTUNATELY, AS THEY GET THIS FAR EAST, SOME DAMPENING HAS
OCCURRED AND THEY BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BUT AS DAYLIGHT COMES BACK,
HEATING SHOULD HELP REINTENSIFY THESE AREAS. NUMBERS ARE NOT VERY
HIGH IN THE SEVERE STORMS DEPARTMENT BUT THEY DO EXIST WHICH IS WHY
SPC HAS OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. THIS
LOOKS CREDIBLE FOR TODAY. A FEW CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LA AT THE
MOMENT, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND
35KT(40MPH) SO MOMENTUM EXCHANGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MODERATE WINDS
AT THE SFC AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF CONVECTIVE BURST TO CAUSE
THESE WINDS TO TIP INTO SEVERE CATEGORY, AT LEAST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. THE MOTION AND MOMENTUM WILL BE SIMILAR AS IT MOVES THROUGH
BUT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE. TIMING IS
NOT CLEAR CUT BUT GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THE ACTUAL LINE'S MOTION, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE CWA BETWEEN 5-6AM THIS
MORNING. THE FASTEST GUIDANCE USING THE CAMS HAS THIS ENTERING AT
7AM. WE WILL BACK THE CURRENT TIMING CLOSER TO 5-6AM. STRATIFORM
RAIN MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LINE KEEPING A LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING THEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THERE IS A WEAKNESS REMAINING
JUST BENEATH 900MB WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
JUST PROVIDES A CONDUIT FOR THESE SYSTEMS TO MOVE EAST ALONG AND
EVEN REDEVELOP IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN BE ACHIEVED DURING THE DAY. A
REPREIVE OVERNIGHT THEN REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN WED ALONG THIS ~900MB
WEAKNESS. AND NOT MUCH UNLIKE TODAY, NUMBERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1500J RANGE SO HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR COULD BE
WHAT RESULTS IN ANY STORMS BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MODELS ARE SHOWING WED NIGHT AGAIN WITH A REPREIVE IN RAINFALL AND
STORMS BUT DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH A DIURNAM CADENCE. THU STORMS WILL
BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING THROUGH
LA JUST AFTER DARK THU EVENING. THIS WILL NOT ALLOW THE SAME NIGHTLY
REPREIVE TO OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS BEFORE. BUT THE
DIFFERING STORM MOTION FLOWS COMING IN WILL CAUSE STORMS TO ACT LIKE
THEY ARE STALLING AS STORM MOTION VECTORS 180 THE PROPAGATION
VECTORS FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT, THAT ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING, WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON FRI AND OFF
THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. THIS SHOULD CLEAN THE
AREA OF SH/TS. BUT UNTIL THEN, ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD AT LEAST MEASURE
WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA POSSIBLY BEING THE LOWEST OVER
THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND THE NORTHER HALF THE HIGHEST. THESE TALLIES ARE
NOT LARGE AND RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH SOUTH TO 3 INCHES NORTH. BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW BULLSEYES OF HIGHER TALLIES WHERE TRAINGING AND
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEEKEND, FOR
NOW, LOOKS GOOD WITH A DRYING OUT PERIOD. BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCH ON SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DROP SOUTHWARD
IN NW FLOW AND WE ALL KNOW HOW NW FLOW IS AROUND HERE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR WILL BE REPLACED BY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A LINE OF TSRA
MOVES THROUGH EACH TERMINAL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A QUICK DROP TO IFR OR EVEN TEMPO LIFR CIS CIGS
WHILE THE TSRA MOVES OVER. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE BACK TO MVFR AND
VFR LEVELS AFTER THE LINE. THE LINE WILL BE TIMED FOR EACH SITE THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SH/TS COULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD ALL DECAY AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME IFR CIGS MOVING IN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SH/TS TODAY AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES
THROUGH CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A WESTERLY OR NW DIRECTION
TEMPORARILY. OVERALL, A GENERAL WELL-ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE STORMS BUT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN WEAK AROUND 10KT
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 15KT THU. STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE FRI AND
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF SAT. IF THIS FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE, IT WOULD PROVIDE NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15KT FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 85 69 85 68 / 90 50 70 50
BTR 88 72 87 71 / 90 40 80 50
ASD 88 71 86 70 / 70 40 80 40
MSY 89 76 86 75 / 70 30 80 40
GPT 87 73 86 71 / 60 40 70 50
PQL 87 71 87 70 / 60 30 60 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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