790
FXUS64 KLIX 280847
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A GENERAL WEAKNESS JUST BENEATH 900MB IS WAVERING BACK AND FORTH
ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN GA TO MOBILE TO VENICE THE OVER THE GULF TO CORPUS
CHRISTI TO NEAR LAREDO. THE TAIL END NEAR LAREDO IS WHERE THE LATEST
IN A LINE OF MCS FEATURES IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE DRAW AHEAD OF THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL HELP BRING THIS MCS
FEATURE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASICALLY, SINCE THIS WILL NOT
BE IN HERE EARLY, IT WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF HEATING TO SECURE OUR
OWN HOME GROWN STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN MCS. THIS SHOULD
START AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. THEN THE MCS WILL MOVE IN TO
FINISH IT OFF WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME SH/TS
AROUND THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS AREAS THAT THEY
CURRENTLY INHABIT THIS MORNING. BUT THE MAIN COURSE WILL BE THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE WX NUMBERS, AGAIN, ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
BUT DO EXIST AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC
FOR TODAY. THE NEXT FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY
THE MASS OF CLOUDS AND SH/TS OVER WEST TX AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS AREA IS BEING ENHANCED AND SUPPORTED BY
THE JET EXITING THE BASE OF THE H3 UPPER TROUGH. A SHORT WAVE WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH LATER TODAY AROUND
NOON KICKING IT EAST. SO AFTER A REPRIEVE TONIGHT, THIS NEXT FEATURE
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR BY ~10ISH AM THU. THIS WILL ALSO
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST AFTER DARK THU EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ANOTHER REPRIEVE WITH DOTTY SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM AROUND BY
EARLY FRI THEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE ITS OWN SH/TS DEVELOPMENT
STARTING LATE MORNING FRI THROUGH THE EVENING THEN FORCING ALL OF
THIS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FOR SAT. TODAY THROUGH FRI WILL SHOW
MUCH THE SAME NUMBERS FOR SEVERE WX, IN THAT THE NUMBERS WILL REMAIN
LOW BUT WITH AMPLE HEATING INDUCING RELATIVELY LARGE CAPE VALUES,
THOSE STORMS THAT CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS COULD BECOME
STRONG/SEVERE EACH DAY. SAT LOOKS CONFIDENTLY DRY, BUT SUNDAY COULD
SHOW THIS FRONT KICKING BACK NORTH WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM OUT
WEST AND THEREFORE DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING BACK
QUICKLY. EITHER WAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK BRINGING THE MUGGY, HOT AIR WITH IT AND
THE CHANCE OF DAILY SH/TS. SUMMER IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL IF NOT ALL SITES AGAIN TODAY WITH
INITIATION AROUND 1PM AROUND HUM FIRST THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
TO INVOLVE ADDITIONAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THESE STORMS SHOULD CAUSE IFR VIS AND CIGS TEMPORARILY
WITH VFR LEVELS FOLLOWING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
OVERALL, A GENERAL WELL-ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SHOULD
REMAIN OUTSIDE STORMS BUT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN WEAK AROUND 10KT
POSSIBLY RISING TO AROUND 15KT THU. STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SAT MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE FRI
AND COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF SAT. IF THIS FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE, IT WILL PROVIDE NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15KT FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTH BRINGING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK BY SUNDAY OR EARLY MON. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE
STORMS BACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 88 68 83 69 / 40 50 90 30
BTR 91 71 85 72 / 60 60 90 20
ASD 89 71 85 71 / 40 40 90 20
MSY 89 76 85 75 / 50 40 90 20
GPT 88 73 83 71 / 20 40 90 40
PQL 89 71 85 71 / 20 40 90 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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