081
FXUS64 KLIX 290515
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR REMOVAL OF PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE NEXT 20-30 MINUTES. LINE THAT WAS THE
MAIN CONCERN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF OUR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES. MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH PRIOR TO
EXPIRATION. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THERE IS STILL AN MCV TO THE WEST OF OUR
AREA, AND LIKELY A REMNANT BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELING CONTINUES TO DEPICT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR CWA FOR MOST OR ALL
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. DRY
AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 600MB HAS LED TO ELEVATED DCAPE VALUES OF 1100
TO 1300 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED
MLCAPE OF 3000 J/KG, WILL LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IN THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD WITH TIME ACROSS THE I-12 CORRIDOR AND THE FLORIDA
PARISHES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WHEN WE LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING.
THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT-TERM MODELS THAT
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR EARLIER TOMORROW AROUND
9-11AM. DCAPE IS MUCH LOWER TOMORROW WITH VALUES AROUND 600-700
J/KG, SO THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE AS
THE ONES TODAY. WE'LL STILL HAVE HIGH COVERAGE TOMORROW SINCE PW
WILL BE ABOVE 2 INCHES (AND ALSO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
THAT DAY). ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE RISK WON'T BE AS HIGH TODAY, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A BIGGER RISK DUE TO THE HIGHER PW. THIS LARGELY
GOES WITHOUT SAYING, BUT IF A STORM SITS OVER AN AREA FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, ESPECIALLY AN URBAN AREA, FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE LIKELY TOMORROW. EXPECT TOTALS JUST UNDER AN INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WHERE STORMS STAY OVER AN
AREA. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING AS THE SUN SET, SIMILAR TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO THROW
A "COLD" FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IT WILL MAINLY DRY OUT
OUT A LITTLE BIT AND MAKE MORNING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
(LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S). CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION
WILL FIRE OFF OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. DCAPE
SEEMS TO BE ELEVATED AGAIN WITH VALUES OF 900-1000 J/KG, SO
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN FRIDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA, NW FLOW SPREADS OVER THE
AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH FILTERS IN, SO THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE
PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND WHILE THAT IS OVER THE AREA.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GULF COAST, SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK INTO MORE OF A 'SUMMER-TIME'
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ONE SURGE OF CONVECTION ABOUT TO EXIT EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA, WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TERREBONNE PARISH SOUTH OF KHUM. WHILE
TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR, EXPECT THAT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OR ALL TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS,
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA. BEYOND THIS SURGE OF CONVECTION,
COULD BE ANOTHER ONE DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS AT MOST TERMINALS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE'LL GET A BREAK
FROM THE CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT
THAT MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST, SO EXPECT WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY.
PLEASANT CONDITIONS TAKE OVER THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE HIGH FILTERS
ACROSS THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 69 83 61 84 / 20 60 10 0
BTR 72 86 64 86 / 20 70 10 0
ASD 71 87 63 85 / 20 70 10 0
MSY 74 87 71 85 / 20 70 10 0
GPT 72 87 65 84 / 30 70 20 0
PQL 71 87 62 85 / 30 70 20 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...JZ
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