851
FXUS64 KLIX 292035
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE REMNANTS OF THE STORMY WEATHER EARLIER TODAY WILL BE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ARE SHOWING RAIN CHANCES PARTICULARY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AND I CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ONCE THESE SHOWERS
PASS, WE ARE LOOKING AT A GREAT FRIDAY AND WEEKEND. THE ACTUAL
FRONT WITH A LESS HUMID AIR MASS, BUT ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER, SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURE
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MOSTLY VARIABLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
WEEKEND IS WONDERFUL, ALTHOUGH STILL BORDERING ON HOT. THE DRIER
AIR WILL HELP DROP THE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. THERE IS DIVERGENCE IN THE DIFFERENT MID-RANGE MODELS BY
MID-WEEK THAT WILL HOPEFULLY RESOLVE OVER THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY,
THE ISSUED FORECAST CALLS FOR BASIC SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ALL TERMINALS ARE BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE MVFR CONDITION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL
BRING LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MCB WILL HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR FROM 10Z TO
14Z WITH VERY LOW STRATUS DECK GRADING INTO 3SM FOG CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SWITCH THE WINDS TO
NORTHERLY, BUT THEY WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT. ASSOCIATED
WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 - 2 FT RANGE. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL
PULL BACK TO THE NORTH RETURNING THE WIND REGIME TO SOUTHERLY AND
INTO THE 10 - 15 KT RANGE. ASSOCIATED WAVES WILL BE 2 - 3 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 85 61 84 / 0 40 0 0
BTR 72 88 66 86 / 0 40 10 0
ASD 71 88 64 86 / 10 30 10 0
MSY 74 89 72 86 / 10 30 10 0
GPT 71 89 65 85 / 10 30 10 0
PQL 68 89 64 86 / 20 30 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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