482
FXUS64 KLIX 292341
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
641 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE REMNANTS OF THE STORMY WEATHER EARLIER TODAY WILL BE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ARE SHOWING RAIN CHANCES PARTICULARY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AND I CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ONCE THESE SHOWERS
PASS, WE ARE LOOKING AT A GREAT FRIDAY AND WEEKEND. THE ACTUAL
FRONT WITH A LESS HUMID AIR MASS, BUT ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER, SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURE
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MOSTLY VARIABLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
WEEKEND IS WONDERFUL, ALTHOUGH STILL BORDERING ON HOT. THE DRIER
AIR WILL HELP DROP THE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. THERE IS DIVERGENCE IN THE DIFFERENT MID-RANGE MODELS BY
MID-WEEK THAT WILL HOPEFULLY RESOLVE OVER THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY,
THE ISSUED FORECAST CALLS FOR BASIC SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ALL TERMINALS WERE VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE, BUT THERE WERE
SCATTERED SHRA TO THE NORTHWEST OF KHUM THAT COULD IMPACT THEM
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO, THUS DID NOT CARRY IN THEIR FORECAST. EXPECT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MVFR CEILINGS, BOTH AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING, AND AT MID-MORNING AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. ONE
LAST DAY OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEAL WITH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW. USED A MIX OF TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS TO
DEAL WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING. CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT MOST OF
THE AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SWITCH THE WINDS TO
NORTHERLY, BUT THEY WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT. ASSOCIATED
WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 - 2 FT RANGE. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL
PULL BACK TO THE NORTH RETURNING THE WIND REGIME TO SOUTHERLY AND
INTO THE 10 - 15 KT RANGE. ASSOCIATED WAVES WILL BE 2 - 3 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 85 61 84 / 0 40 0 0
BTR 72 88 66 86 / 0 40 10 0
ASD 71 88 64 86 / 10 30 10 0
MSY 74 89 72 86 / 10 30 10 0
GPT 71 89 65 85 / 10 30 10 0
PQL 68 89 64 86 / 20 30 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DS
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