855
FXUS64 KLIX 181723 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1223 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
RAIN IN THE MORNING, RAIN IN THE EVENING, RAIN AT SUPPER
TIME...WHEN WE ARE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WE CAN HAVE RAIN AT ANY
TIME. GOOD THINGS THOUGH IS IT LOOKED LIKE THE COVERAGE WAS A
LITTLE LESS YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE AGAIN
TODAY. WE ALREADY HAVE SOME COASTAL CONVECTION RIGHT NOW BUT AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE INLAND IT DISSIPATES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST BUT SEEING STORMS TRANSITION MORE INLAND WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSER TO MIDDAY.
HONESTLY LOOKING AT THE MID LVL PATTERN RIGHT NOW AND SEEING HWO
THINGS MAY BEGIN TO EVOLVE TODAY COULD BE A DRIER DAY. CONVECTION
WILL STILL IMPACT A DECENT CHUNK OF THE AREA BUT NOT SEEING THE
NUMEROUS INSTANTANEOUS COVERAGE THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR THE
LAST WEEK. BIGGEST IMPACT IS IT LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT S/W TROUGH
WILL PULL OUT TO DAY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO RIDGE TO OUR WEST NOSING
INTO THE AREA WHICH WOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE. THAT
SAID IT WON'T COMPLETELY DETER CONVECTION BUT COULD HINDER IT SOME
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
EXPECTED LOWER COVERAGE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S TODAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT IN THAT
TRIANGLE FROM BTR TO NEW TO ASD AND BACK TO BTR THERE WILL BE A FEW
SITES THAT MAY FLIRT WITH 105 DEGREES OR GREATER.
THURSDAY THERE LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF NUMEROUS
STORMS. A S/W DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL HELP ERODE THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THAT WE WILL
BE BACK RIGHT WHERE WE WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND POPS WILL BE
AROUND 50-80%. IF CONVECTION HOLDS OFF THURSDAY EXPECT SOMEWHAT
OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS AGAIN. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SETUP LEADING TO DAILY CONVECTION AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A TOUCH LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT AFTER THAT PROBABLY BACK AROUND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY HAS BEEN RATHER GOOD BUT
THAT SHOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISING IN THE SUMMER. THE NBM MAY BE A
TOUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN ANY ONE TIME RANGE OR LOCATION TO ADJUST SO WE WILL
STICK WITH THE 50-70% POPS FOR NOW.
MAIN PROTAGONIST WILL BE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. FIRST IT WILL BUILD TO
THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY WITH THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY FRIDAY BUT IT WILL STILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING WITH HGHTS
EXPECTED AROUND 593/594DM AND H5 TEMPS AROUND -7C. BOTH OF THESE
AREN'T OVERWHELMING ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND WITH PWS
EXPECTED ATA 1.80" WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED STORMS AND
GUIDANCE IS IN THE 40-50% RANGE FOR FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BE THE DAY
THAT WOULD LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THE RIDGE. CONVECTION
LIKELY HOLDS OFF TILL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
IT WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO WARM UP A TOUCH MORE AND WITH H925 TEMPS
AROUND 24/25C HIGHS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COASTAL AREAS LIKELY REMAIN THE
COOLEST AROUND 90. THIS IS DO SFC WINDS BEING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
COMING OFF THE WATER. INTERIOR AREAS WILL WARM THE MOST AND THERE
WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT CLIMB TO THE MID 90S, POSSIBLY HITTING
95. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A CARBON COPY OF FRIDAY OR POSSIBLY A
TOUCH WARMER. THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AREA
SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL
START TO BUILD NORTHEAST IT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD
BE APPROACHING 595DM. THIS IS STARTING TO GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE BETTER. HOWEVER IT IS STARTING TO PULL
AWAY SO WE PROBABLY SEE THE SCALES REMAIN BALANCED AND THUS
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA AGAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR OR EVEN A DEGREE WARMER.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND THE NEW WORK WEEK WE WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN
CHANCES AND COVERAGE INCREASE. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
A LITTLE EARLIER AND THUS HIGHS MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER BUT WE ARE
TALKING LIKE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER SO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
STRENGTH BUT WITH IT CENTERED SO FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST WE WILL BE THE
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS PLACES US IN THE EASTERLIES AND WITH
THAT THE MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH WILL BE ANY EASTERLY WAVES WHICH
WOULD ALLOW US TO PROVIDE MUCH BETTER TIMING OF RAIN. /CAB/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CYCLE. MCB MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MORNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AT AROUND OR LESS
THAN 10 KTS...HOWEVER, GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION, COVERED WITH PROBS WITH THE
COVERAGE BEING A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN DAYS PAST. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC AND STRETCHING EAST INTO
THE GULF WILL KEEP MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF STORMS OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 12
KNOTS OR LESS. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNALLY
CONVECTION EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
CONVECTION. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 91 72 92 / 30 50 20 40
BTR 75 92 75 93 / 20 60 10 50
ASD 75 92 74 93 / 30 50 20 50
MSY 78 93 78 94 / 30 50 10 60
GPT 77 90 76 92 / 20 50 30 60
PQL 75 91 74 93 / 20 40 30 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB
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