446
FXUS64 KLIX 181953
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
253 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
DRY AIR ALOFT HAS HELPED LIMIT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE ON THE LOWER
SIDE, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON (UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS). ALTHOUGH MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE, STORM INTENSITY IS ON THE MIND, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE DRY AIR AND MICROBURST POTENTIAL. THE BEST POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL RESIDE WEST OF
I-55...ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEEN A FEW WEAK MICROBURST SIGNATURES ON
RADAR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS EAST.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND REFOCUS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WATCH THOSE LOWER LYING
SHALLOW FOG PRONE AREAS TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN IF THEY GET A SHOWER OR
STORM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW LEFT OUT MUCH OF THE FOG POTENTIAL
OUT OF THE FORECAST PENDING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ON THURSDAY A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION.
THE UPPER H5 TROUGH BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE UPPER GULF COAST. WITH ADDED SUBSIDENCE
THINK THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALLOWING FOR
EVEN MORE LIMITED COVERAGE IN STORMS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN A BIT TO
MORE CLIMO PEAK HEATING POPS. IF A MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT DOES
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES INCREASE ACROSS THE CWFA. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS 593DAM RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ARKLAMISS
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SPELLS HOT WEATHER FOR OUR
REGION WITH THE INCREASED IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. THAT SAID,
DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE, THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND...ALTHOUGH IN A MORE LIMITED NATURE.
AGAIN, SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM THERE COULD BE A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO, ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE ROBUST AND WIDER UPDRAFTS THAT
INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH (HENCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY)
MEANING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH IF NOT EXCEED HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. EVEN COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME HEAT RELATED ISSUES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA AND MS GULF COAST WILL
NOT COOL MUCH BELOW 80F.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
TO A STRONG 598DAM HEAT BUBBLE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER HOT PATTERN. HOWEVER,
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT A SERIES OF EASTERLY WAVES ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ENHANCING OUR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESPECTIVELY (LAND VS GULF). (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CYCLE. MCB MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MORNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AT AROUND OR LESS
THAN 10 KTS...HOWEVER, GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION, COVERED WITH PROBS WITH THE
COVERAGE BEING A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN DAYS PAST. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM OVERNIGHT OR MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AND
RATHER GUSTY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGH SEAS IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
(FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 91 73 92 / 30 50 20 40
BTR 75 93 76 94 / 20 60 10 50
ASD 75 93 74 94 / 30 50 20 50
MSY 78 93 78 94 / 30 50 10 50
GPT 77 90 76 92 / 20 50 30 50
PQL 75 92 74 93 / 20 40 30 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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