394
FXUS64 KLIX 191147
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
647 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
IT WAS ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY BUT COVERAGE WAS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
GOOD NEWS, WE WILL STILL SEE RAIN BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THE
BAD NEWS, THIS WILL MEAN HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH MID 90S EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT ALSO MEANS SOMEWHAT OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAT INDEX IN THE MID 100S.
SO WHY WILL ACTIVITY BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE TODAY AND HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. WELL FOR THE PAST WEEK WE HAVE BEEN BASICALLY BETWEEN
TWO RIDGES, ONE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS. NOT ONLY DID THIS PLACE THE REGION UNDER A WEAKNESS BUT WE
ACTUALLY HAD WEAK IMPULSES MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LEADING TO MORE OF A STALLED
TROUGH AND NOT JUST A WEAKNESS ALOFT. THIS PROVIDED SOME SUBTLE
FORCING THAT WAS AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH LITTLE TO NO
SUPPRESSION ALOFT WE SAW CONVECTION FIRE EASILY AND SPREAD OUT WITH
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AT TIMES. THIS IS NOW
CHANGING. OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS TODAY MAY HAVE THE MOST CONVECTION
BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND FAR LESS THAN WHAT WE
HAD BEEN SEEING THE PREVIOUS DAYS BUT WHY. THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
GOING TO START TO BUILD EAST TODAY AND IT LOOKS TO BUILD A LITTLE
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE RIDGE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
PUSH EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH TX AND OK BUT IT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME
QUITE CHANNELIZED AND TAKING ON MORE AND MORE OF AN EAST TO WEST
ORIENTATION. AS THIS HAPPENS OUR RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO EXTEND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN GULF AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID LVL HGHTS AND THUS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SUPPRESSION WHICH SHOULD HURT CONVECTION SOME. NOW MULTIPLE
THINGS, WE DIDN'T SAY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STORMS AS THAT IS
NOT THE CASE. THE INCREASE IN SUPPRESSION THAT WE MAY SEE WILL NOT
BE OVERWHELMING AND WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE DAYTIME HEATING
AND SEABREEZE/LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL GET SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. WE JUST WON'T LIKELY SEE THE CONSTANT REDEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TODAY. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN FACT IT WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE ARKLAMISS. THIS TYPICALLY WOULD KIBOSH CONVECTION AND EVEN ALLOW
THE AREA TO TORCH OUT. THAT WON'T NECESSARILY BE THE CASE THOUGH.
FIRST THE RIDGE EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA IT
WILL STILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND 592/593DM WHILE H5 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6 TO
-7C BY 00Z SATURDAY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THAT IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE AND THUS NOT TYPICALLY ENOUGH TO PUT THE BRAKES ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ADD ON THAT PWS STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 1.75
TO 1.9" FRIDAY AND AS WE HAVE SAID THIS WILL BE MORE OF A DIRTY
RIDGE...RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO BACK
DOWN POPS ABOUT 10% ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND ADJACENT LA PARISHES AND
BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE IN A FEW SPOTS FRIDAY. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 92-94 BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS TOUCHING 95 CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
SATURDAY COULD BE A CARBON COPY OF FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD WITH HGHTS POSSIBLY AROUND 594/595DM BUT IT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE LIKELY WON'T HAVE
MOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO TRULY PLACE THE AREA UNDER THE
STRONGER EASTERLIES YET BUT WITH THE CENTER OF IT MAINLY OVER
WESTERN TN WE SHOULD STILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. AFTERNOONS HIGHS LOOK TO
ALSO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
ONE THINGS TO BRING UP IS THE HEAT INDEX. RIGHT NOW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 91/92 TO 94 RANGE AND ABUNDANT BL MOISTURE IN PLACE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO 103-107 IN MULTIPLE REGIONS.
THE ONE THINGS THAT WE MAY NEED TO WATCH WILL BE WINDS ESPECIALLY
OVER COASTAL MS. THE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD IS RATHER WEAK BUT STILL
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER H925 WINDS MAY BE OUT OF THE WNW AND
H85 WINDS COULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. TYPICALLY THE SFC/BL WINDS
WOULD BE THE THINGS TO WATCH BUT WITH THE LL WINDS HAVING SOMEWHAT
OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT IF WE ARE ABLE TO MIX THAT DOWN THE
SEABREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH NORTH AND ANY AREAS JUST NORTH OF
THE SEABREEZE IN COASTAL MS COULD REALLY HEAT UP WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
TOPPING OUT AT 95 OR EVEN 96. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER HEAT INDEX
VALUES; SO ITS JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU JUN
19 2025
NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY HOT SETUP
TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BUT WE LOOK TO BE WELL INTO THE
EASTERLIES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN AND
HELP TO KNOCK DOWN THE AFTERNOON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE NBM THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR RIDGE WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RIDGE THEN WILL SIT
OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT STARTS TO BUILD BACK
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AS WE MENTIONED WITH
IT CENTERED SO FAR AWAY WE WILL MOVE UNDER THE EASTERLIES AND THAT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TO BE A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH EACH WAVE
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. POPS
ARE HIGH FOR EACH DAY BUT THE DRIVER WILL BE THOSE WAVES SO IT IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE WAVE FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS AFTER IT PASSES BY.
TIMING THESE RIGHT NOW IS IMPOSSIBLE SO THAT IS WHY EVERYDAY HAS
VERY HIGH POPS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
OUTSIDE OF MCB ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE IN VFR. MCB ON THE OTHER
HAND IS VLIFR STATUS WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM AND CIGS 500 FT. MCB
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AND SHOULD BE BACK IN VFR STATUS BEFORE 14Z.
AFTER THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION HOWEVER, CONVECTION
WILL HAVE FAR LESS COVERAGE AND WITH THAT ONLY CARRYING VCTS AND
PROB30'S AT ALL TERMINALS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
AT ISSUANCE TIME, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT KMCB. MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THERE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT HAVEN'T SEEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
AT SURROUNDING AIRPORTS. WOULD NOTE THAT THERE WERE IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS THERE BRIEFLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO
THERE'S AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL THAT EXISTS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BECOME BRIEFLY WIDESPREAD AT MID-MORNING AS CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPS, BUT EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO QUICKLY RISE TO OR ABOVE
FL030. EXPECTATION IS FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY OR A LITTLE AFTER, BUT GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED AS TO HOW
EXTENSIVE THE AREAL COVERAGE BECOMES. WILL USE PROB30 WITH MOST
TSRA DISSIPATING PRIOR TO 00Z FRIDAY. /RW/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY BENIGN FROM A WIND AND WAVE
STANDPOINT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS CONVECTION WHICH IS MAINLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 12KT WHILE SEAS OF 1-3 FT (PROBABLY MORE LIKE 1-2FT) WILL
OCCUR. OBVIOUSLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH WATERSPOUTS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 73 92 73 / 40 30 30 10
BTR 94 75 93 75 / 40 30 40 10
ASD 93 73 93 75 / 40 30 40 10
MSY 93 77 93 78 / 50 30 40 10
GPT 92 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 20
PQL 93 73 93 74 / 40 30 50 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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