452
FXUS64 KLIX 201801
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH LEFT THE MENTION OF PROB30 TS FOR
MOST SITES AS SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE ARE FORMING. OTHERWISE,
AFTER SUNSET WHEN DECOUPLING OCCURS, VRF CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. (JFL)
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
A LITTLE WARMER AND SLIGHTLY LESS RAIN EXPECTED TODAY. THERE WAS
DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS YESTERDAY AS CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH
QUICKLY BLEW DOWN INTO THE AREA AND THE OUTFLOW HELPED TO FIRE OFF
ADDITIONAL STORMS. THE LAST REMNANTS OF THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY HELPING A FEW COASTAL LA STORMS DEVELOP.
PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY. THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED WELL
OFF TO OUR WEST THE LAST WEEK IS ALREADY SLIDING EAST AND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT BUT AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST
FEW DAYS THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE THAT STOUT WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND
592/593DM. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGEST H5 TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN -7C. COMBINE THAT WITH PWS OF 1.75 TO NEAR 2" AND THIS
RIDGE WON'T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WE LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT UP PRETTY DECENTLY TODAY
BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS START TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SEA AND LAKE
BREEZE WITH DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BASED COMPLETELY
OFF OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. WITH STORMS EXPECTED A LITTLE LATER
THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 95. WITH THAT AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD BE IN THE MID 100S AND RIGHT AROUND THAT HEAT ADV
CRITERIA. OVERALL MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW 108
DEGREES HOWEVER SCATTERED LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING THE
HEAT INDEX GET INTO THE UPPER 100S. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN THOUGH MANY AREAS WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH 105-108, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SAY MANY SPOTS WON'T
HIT IT SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING ADV.
SATURDAY JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING THAT WAS SAID FOR FRIDAY IS PRETTY
MUCH ACCURATE FOR SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE RIDGE IS
CONTINUING TO BUILD AND SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IT SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH IS A LITTLE
FARTHER AWAY BUT IT COULD ALSO BE UP TO 594DM. AGAIN THIS RIDGE NOW
CENTERED A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY STILL DOESN'T LOOK TO BE STOUT ENOUGH
TO COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS STILL ABUNDANT WITH
PWS EXPECTED NEAR 2". THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH
OF I-10 IN LA WHERE THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE LEAST IMPACTS FROM THE
RIDGE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY BUT UNLESS WE SEE TEMPS REALLY START TO CLIMB
THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE VERY BORDERLINE. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
HELLO SUMMER MY OLD FRIEND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE WARM, HUMID,
AND "WET" AGAIN. YEP THATS RIGHT WET. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WHAT WE TODAY AND
TOMORROW. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE REGION
SITTING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING EASTERLY FLOW TO DOMINATE THE
AREA.
SO AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
THE NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BRING THE HEAT TO AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF US. HOWEVER, IT WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN GULF
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND LIKE WE SAID EARLIER,
WELL INTO THE THE EASTERLIES. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE REMAINS WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH THAT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MULTIPLE EASTERLY WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND IMPACT THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH EACH WAVE THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALSO KEEPS THE HEAT FROM BUILDING LIKE IT
WILL BE DOING TO OUR NORTH WITH HIGHS REMAINING THE LOWER 90S AND
MAYBE A FEW UPPER 80S. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
AT FORECAST ISSUANCE, ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE VFR, AFTER
EVENING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. STILL QUITE A BIT OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD ACROSS MOST TERMINALS, AND UNLESS IT DISSIPATES, IT'D LOWER
THE THREAT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE
THE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE AT
KMCB, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T AS HIGH AS IT WAS EARLIER. ONCE AGAIN,
AS CUMULUS DEVELOPS AT MID-MORNING, MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CEILINGS AROUND FL020 OR FL025 BEFORE CLOUD BASES LIFT ABOVE
FL030. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF TSRA
EACH DAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE
ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ONE WOULD THINK
THERE'D BE ENOUGH SUPPRESSION TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT, BUT CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELSDO SHOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY PROB30 DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DISSIPATION
AROUND SUNSET. /RW/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER BENIGN OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED BY DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THIS WILL FINALLY LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 72 93 73 92 / 10 20 10 50
BTR 75 94 76 94 / 10 30 10 60
ASD 74 93 74 92 / 10 30 10 50
MSY 78 93 79 93 / 10 40 10 60
GPT 75 92 76 90 / 20 30 20 50
PQL 73 93 74 92 / 20 40 30 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ070-071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...JFL
MARINE...CAB
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