452
FXUS64 KLIX 202104
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
IT WAS A TOASTY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AS MAX HEAT INDICIES CLIMBED TO NEAR 110. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINED GENERALLY ISOLATED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE, BUT WITH MORE COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL MS
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE STILLING STRUGGLING TO GROW AGAINST
THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT CURRENTLY CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME STORMS COULD STILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
AS DCAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR A QUICK DOWNBURSTS.
CALM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING ONCE SURFACE HEATING IS
LOST AND DECOUPLING BEGINS. FOR SATURDAY, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITION ONCE AGAIN, ALTHOUGH MORE LIMITED IN
EXTENT. THIS IS BECAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE MOVE
EASTWARD WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE
MORE CLOUD COVER. RIVER PARISHES AND AREAS COASTAL LAKES AS WELL
AS COASTAL MS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR INDICES CLOSE TO 110
AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE FOR CONVECTION AS THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WILL BRING ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE. AS OF NOW, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ALTHOUGH A FEW
AREAS COULD REACH 105.
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS EASTERLY WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH LEFT THE MENTION OF PROB30 TS FOR
MOST SITES AS SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE ARE FORMING. OTHERWISE,
AFTER SUNSET WHEN DECOUPLING OCCURS, VRF CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. (JFL)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
SHIFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW AS WITH ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK, INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MARINE AREAS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 93 73 92 / 10 20 10 50
BTR 76 95 75 93 / 10 30 10 60
ASD 75 93 74 92 / 20 30 10 50
MSY 78 94 79 93 / 10 30 10 60
GPT 76 92 76 91 / 30 30 20 50
PQL 73 94 73 92 / 30 40 20 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ037-039-057-
058-060-064-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ070-071-077-
083>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ070-071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JFL
LONG TERM....JFL
AVIATION...JFL
MARINE...JFL
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