005
FXUS64 KLIX 210444
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
MINOR UPDATE TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO PORTIONS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SMALL
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN MERIDIAN AND LUCEDALE THAT ON
THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY IF THEY DON'T DISSIPATE, COULD REACH AT
LEAST JACKSON AND HARRISON COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT, PROBABLY AFTER
3 AM CDT. EVEN IF THEY DON'T MAKE IT, THERE'LL BE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER IN THAT AREA THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
WILL HOLD ONTO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE PARISHES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR A COUPLE HOURS UNTIL THEY TOTALLY DISSIPATE.
THEY ARE MOVING VERY LITTLE, SO COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A WIND GUST OR TWO TO AROUND 30-35 MPH AS THE UPDRAFT
COLLAPSES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
IT WAS A TOASTY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AS MAX HEAT INDICIES CLIMBED TO NEAR 110. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINED GENERALLY ISOLATED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE, BUT WITH MORE COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL MS
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE STILLING STRUGGLING TO GROW AGAINST
THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT CURRENTLY CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME STORMS COULD STILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
AS DCAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR A QUICK DOWNBURSTS.
CALM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING ONCE SURFACE HEATING IS
LOST AND DECOUPLING BEGINS. FOR SATURDAY, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITION ONCE AGAIN, ALTHOUGH MORE LIMITED IN
EXTENT. THIS IS BECAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE MOVE
EASTWARD WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE
MORE CLOUD COVER. RIVER PARISHES AND AREAS COASTAL LAKES AS WELL
AS COASTAL MS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR INDICES CLOSE TO 110
AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE FOR CONVECTION AS THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
WILL BRING ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE. AS OF NOW, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ALTHOUGH A FEW
AREAS COULD REACH 105.
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK AS EASTERLY WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY VFR. SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED TSRA THAT
ARE SOUTH OF KMEI COULD REACH KGPT LATER TONIGHT AND WILL CARRY A
PROB30 BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FOR THAT POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KMCB AROUND SUNRISE, AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR KBTR
FOR THE SAME THING, AS THEY HAD ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN AROUND THE
AIRPORT AROUND SUNSET, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. BEYOND SUNRISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER THREAT
OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS,
AND WILL CARRY PROB30 THERE AS WELL, GENERALLY BETWEEN 19Z-23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
SHIFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LOW AS WITH ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK, INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MARINE AREAS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 93 73 92 / 10 20 10 50
BTR 76 95 75 93 / 20 30 10 60
ASD 75 93 74 92 / 10 30 10 50
MSY 78 94 79 93 / 20 30 10 60
GPT 76 92 76 91 / 20 30 20 50
PQL 73 94 73 92 / 20 40 20 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ037-039-057-
058-060-064-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ070-071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JFL
LONG TERM....JFL
AVIATION/UPDATES...RW
MARINE...JFL
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