520
FXUS64 KLIX 211804
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
104 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SUMMER OFFICIALLY ARRIVED YESTERDAY. AND LIKE MOST PEOPLE, WE THINK
SUMMER MOVED IN MUCH EARLIER AND AS USUAL, IT WILL OVERSTAY ITS
WELCOME. HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID 90S AGAIN TODAY AND THIS WILL
BE A COMMON THEME THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THERE WILL BE A
FEW TIMES THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK, BUT THAT SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WAYS DOWN THE ROAD. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE IN THE
100S THOUGH, AND THIS IS QUITE COMMON SINCE IT IS SUMMER. WE HAVE
FALLEN BACK TO A DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CYCLE AND A MORE NORMAL
PRECIP PERCENTAGE(30-40%) DAILY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
THESE NUMBERS EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO AS ADDITIONAL FEATURES SWING
THROUGH. THE FLOW FOR US WILL BECOME MORE SE TO NW AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND ACUTALLY BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EVEN NUDGING INTO THE EAST COAST OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THIS RIDGING
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY INTO OUR AREA BRINGING WHATEVER IS IN THIS FLOW
OVER US. THIS IS NOT A GOOD THING DURING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SUCH AS AUGUST/SEPTEMBER BUT THESE ODDS
ARE NOT AS HIGH IN JUNE/JULY. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT CAN'T OR WON'T
HAPPEN, WE JUST DON'T SEE ANYTHING ON THE HORIZON AT THE MOMENT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
WE MAY NOT SEE ANY TROPICAL CYCLONES AT THE MOMENT, BUT WE
DIFINITELY SEE TROPICAL WAVES(EASTERLY WAVES) MOVING OVER THE AREA
AND ONE OF THESE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SIMPLY BOOST
OUR PRECIP CHANCES AND CAN BE BREEZY WHEN INTERACTING WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH. WE WILL KEEP WITH THE NORMAL CHANCES OF SH/TS INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK BUT LIFT THOSE CHANCES FOR TUESDAY, AND THIS MAY
COME IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. AFTER TUE, PRECIP NUMBERS FALL AGAIN TO A MORE NORMAL
VALUE. WITH THESE DEEP MOISTURE WAVES MOVING THROUGH, THERE IS
ALWAYS A CHANCE TO SEE WATERSPOUTS APPROACHING THE SHORELINE. THESE
ARE NORMALLY WEAK AND LAND NORMALLY DISRUPTS THEIR CIRCULATION
UNLESS THERE ARE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL PROCESSES INVOLVED. BUT EACH
SUMMER A FEW MANAGE TO JUST CROSS THE COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING AND
CAN CAUSE SOME WIND DAMAGE. OTHERWISE, THE RAIN CAN BE BENEFICIAL
FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE HEAT RAMPS UP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT MOST
TERMINALS. PROB30 LINES ARE INCLUDED FOR SITES WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR TSRA IMPACTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON PREDOMINANTLY ALONG THE LAKE
AND SEA BREEZES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. THERE IS AGAIN
A CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR FOG AT MCB NEAR SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS FCAST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SH/TS EACH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT AND
RISE ABRUPTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 92 72 91 / 20 30 20 40
BTR 74 93 74 92 / 20 40 20 70
ASD 73 92 74 91 / 10 30 20 60
MSY 78 92 79 92 / 10 40 20 70
GPT 76 90 76 89 / 10 40 20 60
PQL 73 92 74 91 / 10 40 20 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ037-039-057-058-
060-064-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ070-071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TE
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